AI · resolved market
Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a37e2d8f9a4964a13443cb299a7cb296933bdbb6ea0a9dc1a3a6dd54fe17b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,611$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 5c | 1,037$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 4c | 800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 613.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 501.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 24c | 416.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072d…9c11backed No | 15c | 234.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 50c | 190.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…7730backed No | 54c | 156.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 144.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 67c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5c08backed No | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…3bcfbacked Yes | 80c | 125.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0908…6471backed No | 39c | 102.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 31c | 96.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…6e60backed No | 46c | 88.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…25f4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…184abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…1fe7backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fec7backed No | 46c | 47.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd6…851dbacked No | 34c | 47.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…c23cbacked Yes | 70c | 46.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40c…e6f7backed Yes | 65c | 42.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…376abacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…125bbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…1374backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…7182backed Yes | 46c | 32.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…4561backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?this page
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.