TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Packers vs. Broncos

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Packers, Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,873,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,049,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,873,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Packers53c2,158,629$1,143,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143,229.7617041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Broncos47c1,380,876$645,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735,859.7586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Broncos47c560,723$265,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295,328.4630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e25…0af8backed Broncos47c425,627$200,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225,582.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked Packers53c199,954$105,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,975.871428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Packers53c155,000$82,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,1508747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Broncos47c153,300$72,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,815.9827454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Packers52c120,000$62,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,40031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Broncos47c116,000$54,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,48024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Broncos47c114,747$54,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,315.739359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Broncos48c105,578$50,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,678.235648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Packers52c84,862$44,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,128.27939.2%31 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Broncos47c79,991$37,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,395.4716955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos48c62,154$29,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,520.1824957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Packers51c55,330$28,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,421.3916836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Packers3c55,208$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.1420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Packers52c50,000$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,999.985850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Broncos49c44,656$21,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,774.4919553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Packers52c44,260$23,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,0155550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Packers52c40,000$20,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,80017647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Broncos64c38,995$24,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,041.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Packers51c38,632$19,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,702.515453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Packers44c32,452$14,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,351.0775852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Broncos48c29,629$14,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,407.0819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Packers4c27,967$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Packers53c26,519$14,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,055.1419645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Broncos47c25,000$11,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,25010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…194dbacked Broncos45c24,183$10,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,183.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Broncos60c23,873$14,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,444.151752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Packers52c22,318$11,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,605.588856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ca…cebbbacked Packers59c21,500$12,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,684.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Packers53c20,755$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Packers52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,40035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Packers2c20,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick48cpaid-64.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Broncos47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6006451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Packers53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6005236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Packers59c20,000$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,799.993548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Broncos46c19,361$8,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,485.130743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Packers53c18,874$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.6613560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Packers53c18,868$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Broncos45c16,430$7,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.12948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Broncos39c16,250$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9504452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Packers8c16,195$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.3319235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Broncos48c15,705$7,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,166.6718650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Broncos28c15,367$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,998.418128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Broncos48c15,000$7,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,859.9624053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Broncos44c14,394$6,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,025.2911643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Packers54c14,101$7,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,602.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked Broncos74c13,278$9,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb433…7705backed Packers11c12,699$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.551723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos47c12,000$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,36024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Packers54c11,332$6,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,119.046639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Packers39c11,189$4,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.5316254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Packers54c11,000$5,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9404252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Broncos47c10,078$4,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,341.0811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Broncos50c10,064$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,065.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Broncos47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Packers53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30017348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Broncos48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2002454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Packers52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Broncos48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2007051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Broncos48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9514342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Broncos47c9,574$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,074.4713142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Packers53c9,434$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Broncos43c9,135$3,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,237.2450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d9…ca67backed Broncos40c8,700$3,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,218.513548.6%17 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Packers10c8,267$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Packers51c8,143$4,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,153.1139447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1313…85d8backed Broncos40c8,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Packers54c7,891$4,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,297.0447738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c68…3dd4backed Broncos36c7,523$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,814.51837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Packers24c7,170$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Packers50c7,131$3,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,565.659359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8224…e28abacked Packers61c7,052$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Packers53c7,000$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6803444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Broncos49c6,613$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,396.5154451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Packers3c6,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1807733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Packers68c5,759$3,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8987557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Broncos47c5,747$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.6514837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d6…3eeebacked Broncos35c5,482$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,547.381127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Packers55c5,455$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed Packers53c5,442$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.052152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Packers1c5,157$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.361486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Broncos48c5,000$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.648351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Packers52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6002528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Packers53c4,968$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.9831854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Broncos42c4,944$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.032147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Packers54c4,881$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.7315252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Packers53c4,719$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Packers53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Broncos47c4,427$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,343.576943.5%30 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Broncos45c4,407$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.298540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Packers52c4,362$2,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.2453253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc35d…4164backed Broncos49c4,282$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a5…75acbacked Packers51c4,270$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos59c4,226$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.6960049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Packers52c4,063$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.0431848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Broncos51c4,048$2,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.8964747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Packers52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0804944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.