NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2819b831a41c467b154522e3d3a1edbfe1164c917172d3a607ec373520e981c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 8,272$4,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,249.22 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Over | 49c | 4,920$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,526$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.14 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 58c | 428.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 49c | 408.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.78 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 355.39$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.01 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…9c48backed Over | 55c | 328.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 321.02$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 41c | 297$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 48c | 264.58$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 238.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 238.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Under | 50c | 119.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a0…67cabacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 46c | 97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 46c | 97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…ca99backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Under | 53c | 74.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…c340backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 35.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 31.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 46c | 27.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 51c | 26.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Under | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 23.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5this page
- Packers vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Packers vs. Broncos: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Over won
- Packers vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.