NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de23fc9abd20784b275818a77605490836efde85fcd004e34a9ce5dc64f14cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Packers, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Broncos | 52c | 94,958$48,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,009.22 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Packers | 48c | 65,224$31,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,307.34 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos | 52c | 22,168$11,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,681.87 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Packers | 49c | 20,228$9,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,911.88 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 49c | 10,603$5,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,143.43 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…58a6backed Packers | 49c | 8,165$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Packers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Packers | 48c | 2,922$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.56 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Packers | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Broncos | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.56 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Packers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Broncos | 51c | 1,565$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.95 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a33…7dccbacked Packers | 49c | 1,087$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Packers | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Packers | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Packers | 49c | 848.76$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.89 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Broncos | 36c | 776.16$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.79 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Packers | 64c | 775.29$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.99 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Broncos | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Packers | 48c | 687$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.76 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Packers | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Packers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Packers | 48c | 364.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Packers | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Broncos | 52c | 280$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Packers | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Packers | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Packers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Packers | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Packers | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Packers | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Packers | 48c | 159.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…bdc8backed Packers | 51c | 114$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Packers | 51c | 90.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…76cabacked Broncos | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…1fdabacked Packers | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Packers | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Packers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…c340backed Packers | 50c | 38.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Packers | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Packers | 51c | 21.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)this page
- Packers vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Packers vs. Broncos: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Over won
- Packers vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.