NFL · resolved market
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b3a9e80885b9b1fc3eb22ef2ba57b2992084e5963778c3f90f47dc239cbbb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 73c | 2,091$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.32 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…3114backed Yes | 40c | 1,558$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…87b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 64c | 800.81$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.88 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 42c | 522.95$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 68c | 493.92$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 25c | 468.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed No | 76c | 396.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 28c | 394$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed No | 61c | 363.79$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 24c | 347.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 32c | 295.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 25c | 294.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed Yes | 36c | 290$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1d12backed Yes | 44c | 262$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes | 38c | 245.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…0806backed No | 70c | 240.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 51c | 239.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 32c | 237.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 29c | 237$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 204.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 56c | 203.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…767ebacked Yes | 28c | 178.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked No | 57c | 160$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf00…fdb0backed Yes | 31c | 146.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 129.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes | 24c | 118.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 108.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…dd3dbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…b391backed Yes | 30c | 98.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 51c | 98.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e5…7087backed Yes | 40c | 96.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 61c | 94.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 93.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 57c | 91.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…42e1backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 83.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…c6e4backed Yes | 46c | 72.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 62.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 61.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2a…d857backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4684…d364backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 41.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 43c | 40.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…9c2cbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…8fd0backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6386…b452backed Yes | 38c | 32.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…ffaabacked Yes | 42c | 30.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 72c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a57ebacked No | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1647…4f84backed No | 63c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…f49dbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…b3ddbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?this page
- Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Caleb Downs be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Carson Beck be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Francis Mauigoa be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Garrett Nussmeier be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?Yes won
- Will Kayden McDonald be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Spencer Fano be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.