NFL · resolved market
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf102d50ca8be16c8d24909574e37ee7829fa840de9d123311b01fa90976f7b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e78…4e67backed Yes | 2c | 1,829$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,473$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…f1bbbacked Yes | 35c | 1,254$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,059$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 70c | 756.16$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.61 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 30c | 552.5$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 33c | 536.95$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.62 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 36c | 505.61$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.48 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 406.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 68c | 346.84$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 17c | 343.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 24c | 334$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…133dbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 36c | 297.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 37c | 275.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 273.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…00abbacked Yes | 37c | 270.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 31c | 257.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…9e40backed Yes | 33c | 224.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1290…5269backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…e3f7backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 199.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 185.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ed…bcb7backed Yes | 44c | 181.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 176.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 68c | 176.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e3…1dfdbacked Yes | 17c | 173.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 16c | 159.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 25c | 151.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 148.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ce…8945backed Yes | 21c | 141.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 17c | 138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 124.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 119$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 116.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 114.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…578fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…bbe3backed No | 77c | 95.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…42e1backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…140abacked Yes | 30c | 65.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8f…3179backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf00…fdb0backed Yes | 25c | 59.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed Yes | 18c | 59.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…0d73backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d5…a33bbacked Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…bcabbacked No | 66c | 34.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1647…4f84backed No | 77c | 33.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf6…1fe3backed No | 66c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45b…378bbacked No | 68c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd11…0da3backed Yes | 77c | 25.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99d…b27fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…a684backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…21a4backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…6221backed No | 70c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?this page
- Will Caleb Downs be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Carson Beck be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Francis Mauigoa be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Garrett Nussmeier be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?Yes won
- Will Kayden McDonald be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
- Will Spencer Fano be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.