Fed Rates · resolved market
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe949a7019c338c59d337a4e2c4e71cfb8ae07fbd4cf7ca5bdc218122429c1be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec23…ac24backed Yes | 0c | 12,620$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 12,297$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…b48dbacked Yes | 5c | 10,201$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,964$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,865$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 1c | 9,256$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…01f8backed Yes | 6c | 8,732$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…53b3backed Yes | 1c | 7,136$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…f679backed Yes | 0c | 6,670$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 0c | 6,355$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…c2efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,942$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…9198backed Yes | 5c | 4,917$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…69ebbacked Yes | 1c | 3,717$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Yes | 1c | 3,367$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…0e83backed Yes | 1c | 3,072$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625e…76e3backed Yes | 0c | 2,817$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc685…adf9backed Yes | 4c | 2,696$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,317$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…f7d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,124$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…03a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 0c | 2,051$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f4…723cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,727$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…57d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,713$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…6a0fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,667$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…9b63backed Yes | 1c | 1,642$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…cb8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,603$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…cd36backed Yes | 4c | 1,550$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c4…9756backed Yes | 1c | 1,441$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…f485backed Yes | 1c | 1,428$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…de2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,158$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,152$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 3c | 948.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 838$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…23c4backed Yes | 5c | 777.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a9…fdeebacked Yes | 4c | 760.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 3c | 585.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 562.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 533.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…485cbacked Yes | 4c | 403.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 369.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…ada7backed Yes | 3c | 310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 4c | 256.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…ce5bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.