NBA · resolved market
Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9451d92bd6ed3bdd5db825f67fcd6e722835a0f3fc8f6581e59f9d52edd39143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 55c | 855.15$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.84 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 44c | 706.89$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.93 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 40c | 667.96$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.44 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…b8abbacked Yes | 68c | 644.14$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Yes | 54c | 630.32$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.34 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 516.93$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.2 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 32c | 481.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.53 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…4ae9backed Yes | 56c | 361.79$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa560…f42ebacked Yes | 57c | 342.74$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed No | 41c | 270.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 53c | 162.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 54c | 136.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 46c | 128.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…fd45backed Yes | 53c | 91.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 47c | 89.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 48c | 84.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 55c | 83.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3e…fd63backed Yes | 54c | 73.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…a0a2backed Yes | 67c | 73.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…cd37backed No | 36c | 71.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 70.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 48c | 69.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…b4dabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e7…b4a1backed Yes | 65c | 45.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Yes | 51c | 44.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 47c | 41.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed No | 45c | 39.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa08e…42f3backed Yes | 56c | 32.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1ee1backed Yes | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed No | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…db3dbacked No | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…2293backed Yes | 61c | 24.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Yes | 53c | 20.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Lakers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.