NBA · resolved market
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2636918232fee32e2bdf0518e13590344c7b78e4fc86a04345d47246583c48b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 58c | 1,599$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.25 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 62c | 799.98$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.99 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 2c | 618.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Yes | 45c | 536.13$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.76 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4e…d00abacked Yes | 43c | 451.61$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…08d3backed Yes | 43c | 450.03$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…14c4backed Yes | 40c | 420.48$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 27c | 304.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c20…42a1backed Yes | 38c | 253.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…5a83backed Yes | 38c | 248.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 43c | 179.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…9539backed Yes | 38c | 177.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…4b32backed Yes | 36c | 124.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 57c | 117.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 50c | 111.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 11c | 103.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 58c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…248ebacked No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed No | 62c | 48.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 43c | 48.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed No | 63c | 24.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed No | 69c | 20.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Lakers vs. RocketsRockets won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.