TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 106.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,748 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e52…2320backed Under54c497.03$269 inWon+$228.482281.8%18 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over46c245.56$113 inLost-$112.9676247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under47c179.46$84 inWon+$95.112,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Under52c133.67$70 inWon+$64.161,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Over48c111.41$53 inLost-$53.4842740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Over30c107.51$32 inLost-$31.8821848.2%105 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3597…3e48backed Over48c100.92$48 inLost-$48.442646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under47c100$47 inWon+$531,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under50c90.82$45 inWon+$45.432,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…a1d3backed Under62c84.52$52 inWon+$32.173551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3320…af8fbacked Over48c60.55$29 inLost-$29.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Under54c36.01$19 inWon+$16.5714844.6%66 W · 82 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb028…5652backed Under54c30.02$16 inWon+$13.812356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6293…e521backed Over49c29.1$14 inLost-$14.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceaa…0811backed Over52c27.43$14 inLost-$14.182254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.