TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,988 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6c8…e91abacked Lakers59c2,499$1,467 inLost-$1,466.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Rockets42c1,579$658 inWon+$921.012,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed Rockets51c986.18$501 inWon+$485.172281.8%18 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Lakers54c850.13$459 inLost-$459.0711864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac03…5350backed Rockets46c822.59$378 inWon+$444.23447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers53c353.1$187 inLost-$187.141,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Rockets47c347.54$163 inWon+$184.22250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lakers51c101.83$52 inLost-$51.951,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Rockets44c100$44 inWon+$5656043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Rockets43c99.99$43 inWon+$5741050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers51c80.93$42 inLost-$41.632,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lakers57c30.52$17 inLost-$17.361,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.