TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,481

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,306 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e22…237ebacked Yes1c1,411$14 inLost-$14.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No58c1,107$645 inWon+$462.3239265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed No60c1,000$600 inWon+$40095548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c20…42a1backed Yes46c595.81$276 inLost-$275.823050%15 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6691…5a83backed Yes39c579.79$228 inLost-$228.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7196…08d3backed Yes40c483.77$193 inLost-$192.781838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f0…9384backed Yes40c482$193 inLost-$192.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Yes49c394.8$194 inLost-$193.8927746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No60c350$210 inWon+$14039864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No55c230$127 inWon+$103.556050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef6…38b5backed Yes40c180.46$72 inLost-$72.181526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3f…14c4backed Yes39c160.57$63 inLost-$62.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1229…4b32backed Yes39c112.99$44 inLost-$44.0760%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Yes41c100$41 inLost-$4141050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c15…5c48backed Yes32c90.91$29 inLost-$28.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…cb64backed No57c70.65$40 inWon+$30.722560%15 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No54c60$32 inWon+$27.933556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccd3…5e2ebacked Yes39c54.6$21 inLost-$21.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed No55c40$22 inWon+$183464.7%22 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No76c31.7$24 inWon+$7.5232866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No55c25$14 inWon+$11.296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No60c20$12 inWon+$8.133356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.