Tennis · resolved market
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc295a730f3dc3b065cf724f0e55ea5e2931ca12ad0d2a04a7b8afad50efda5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,721 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Yes | 17c | 1,729$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 71c | 1,666$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.03 | 757 | 48.6%368 W · 389 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…0883backed Yes | 30c | 1,645$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…c8a9backed Yes | 23c | 1,514$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,214$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 74c | 700.85$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 17c | 607.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…478cbacked Yes | 32c | 564.28$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 4c | 404.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 22c | 354.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 75c | 327.19$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Yes | 31c | 326.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…07babacked Yes | 24c | 310.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…66cebacked Yes | 33c | 259.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 257.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…980abacked Yes | 26c | 238.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 79c | 216$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 209.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -61%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…da07backed Yes | 25c | 199.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 12c | 190.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…0016backed Yes | 26c | 189.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 16c | 175.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 77c | 175.52$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 79c | 169.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 45c | 137.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…81eebacked Yes | 20c | 126.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…b718backed Yes | 25c | 114$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ebccbacked Yes | 21c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…78f0backed Yes | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…65bbbacked Yes | 26c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…60cebacked Yes | 25c | 100.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c1…14adbacked Yes | 22c | 89.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…2c05backed Yes | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 20c | 76.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49be…48cbbacked Yes | 22c | 75.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a6…fd9cbacked Yes | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 66.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 77c | 61.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…ceb4backed Yes | 25c | 60.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc583…e29cbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 73c | 53.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 52.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…7df6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…ecf7backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…932ebacked No | 78c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…d049backed Yes | 24c | 42.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 40.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 39.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a5…2772backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ad…8773backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…35eabacked No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 71c | 32.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4774…1809backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a4…bf64backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e2…e7f9backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…6f28backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…792cbacked No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed No | 76c | 27.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…b967backed No | 79c | 27.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…8b25backed No | 79c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…c899backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7c…b686backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…304bbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…ded8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…e405backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72a…2029backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?this page
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.