Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9532f1ccd66d663c0f92387f500a8d126967cefc78d5780dd2e97ea262ca1838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,354 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf45…c508backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 65c | 841.25$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.13 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc940…4d39backed Yes | 60c | 580.87$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 46c | 496.32$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.2 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 58c | 434.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 66c | 410$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 39c | 377.56$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.72 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 54c | 375$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 39c | 229.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Yes | 52c | 222.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 179.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Yes | 57c | 174.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…2c44backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd00d…0405backed Yes | 55c | 90.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 80.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Yes | 66c | 69.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…0a9fbacked Yes | 60c | 67.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 55c | 62.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 45.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…a45ebacked No | 46c | 43.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…5e60backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2669backed Yes | 55c | 28.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…2b95backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 24.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…5257backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?this page
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.