TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0369…2a12

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+215.9%+$96.61
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.96
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.83
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+100.6%+$32.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.23
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$5.21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+72.6%+$48.09
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+94.1%+$10.54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.93
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.73
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.51
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.1
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$3.2
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$4.46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.21
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.78
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.81
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.78
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.54
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+92.9%+$14.44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+161.5%+$183.95
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+61.2%+$14.72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.93
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.7
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+61%+$6.47
Canucks vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.9
Oilers vs. Sharksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$9.28
All 3 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+338%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+338%+$81.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+107.5%+$15.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$6.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: G2 Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.