TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,758 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682e…70bdbacked Yes66c18,832$12,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,410.073745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No35c10,063$3,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,528.872944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes65c5,546$3,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.1713250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No32c4,842$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.4911222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes63c3,657$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.1122547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes77c3,500$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.7235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x10e1…aa05backed Yes58c3,199$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.454017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No41c3,196$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.238636%31 W · 55 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes69c3,184$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.038145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No25c3,163$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.6635921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes71c3,152$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.6940433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No27c2,994$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.7736634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No3c2,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No28c2,386$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.475450%27 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No10c2,328$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.248339.8%33 W · 50 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No40c2,026$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.7447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed No30c2,012$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.196165.6%40 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No31c1,985$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.5221726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes68c1,958$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.565954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c1,845$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7734432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No38c1,750$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.212328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No34c1,426$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48724759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No37c1,407$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.8519648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No24c1,370$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9133337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes79c1,356$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.3413246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86f…256fbacked Yes56c1,279$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.56450%32 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes54c1,251$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.6828438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No21c1,213$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8220243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No18c1,200$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b13…ade2backed No41c1,167$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes63c1,130$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.116648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes60c1,120$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.62166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed No41c1,115$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.676338.1%24 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No30c1,097$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.3740939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes44c1,070$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.7227643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6020…615cbacked Yes75c1,069$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.821258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+78.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36f5…4c9dbacked No26c1,030$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.31163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+90.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No40c1,012$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.3516131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No29c1,011$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4838247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc881…b071backed No52c1,000$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.541560%9 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes60c999.99$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.9926429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No36c900.37$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3411615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe807…4d35backed No43c893.59$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.093638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No21c799.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17025339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe18…d3a0backed No36c789.78$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.664214.3%6 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6d…5453backed No31c765.38$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.765139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes76c752.21$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No40c722.88$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.0920131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f13…3a2dbacked No46c689.15$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.68351.8%43 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9c…ae8ebacked Yes67c651.89$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+109.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked No29c643.93$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.095736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No37c612.82$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3673…6c10backed No37c607.68$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.911136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+78.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No31c607$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0312046.7%56 W · 64 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+52.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes72c600.33$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.4728943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes66c600$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20420247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No41c599.98$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2fab…9db1backed Yes69c587.84$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed No60c574.33$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.0212054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No30c565.11$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.698750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No47c556.76$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2647821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes76c533.45$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4710838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No20c531.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7522927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae2…1032backed Yes47c523.51$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.682334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed Yes57c499.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2168829.5%26 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No46c498.27$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.429057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8bd3…5cf0backed Yes57c491.98$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.314353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked No55c474.33$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.033850%19 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked No9c459.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.824540%18 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes65c423.09$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.085354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes77c409.4$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8518738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0115…2552backed Yes52c405.97$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc72…b99abacked Yes48c400.33$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.252433.3%8 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+277.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x149f…d306backed No29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1166845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12422627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4420…3babbacked No9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-34.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes66c399.99$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe37e…9de0backed No3c384.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3b…d2e3backed No50c377.49$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b6…11c5backed No35c342.68$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.13141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf52a…e276backed Yes45c328$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.48944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick27cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked No38c327.54$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.079953.5%53 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes64c326.66$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x506b…b0febacked No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2434…05eabacked No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026327%17 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa132…c95ebacked Yes75c281.06$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.06520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-73.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No18c279.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2315023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes69c271.44$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0536035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked No31c261.21$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6418639.8%74 W · 112 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Yes67c246.86$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.472454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No21c234.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2712918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No38c229.66$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.334143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked No35c227$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.451931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb731…5797backed Yes68c212.44$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.444761.7%29 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No9c212$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.083545.7%16 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+170%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b6…5a2ebacked Yes60c210$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.964647.8%22 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aab…6c6fbacked Yes70c202.69$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked No56c202$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1211432.5%37 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.