TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canucks vs. Sharks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canucksof Canucks, Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,101,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,156,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,101,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 723 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Canucks36c112,000$40,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,679.9448545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Canucks38c105,647$39,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,967.3919848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Canucks36c105,322$37,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,396.1411644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Canucks35c79,287$27,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,538.8867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Sharks64c70,000$44,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,8001947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Sharks55c65,238$36,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,00012835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Sharks63c40,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,199.9914650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Canucks36c36,821$13,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,565.2251550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Canucks34c35,124$11,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,182.0715054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Sharks65c33,389$21,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,595.6140351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Sharks63c29,189$18,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,529.4927448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Sharks65c25,678$16,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,6654348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Sharks63c23,155$14,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,539.4883652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sharks62c22,625$14,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,075.412,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Sharks64c19,254$12,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,249.6375251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Sharks62c17,828$11,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,005.014151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Sharks65c17,539$11,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,444.0518452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Sharks64c15,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9212950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Canucks39c13,000$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,929.771861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Canucks43c12,791$5,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,332.244848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Sharks80c12,542$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0007149.3%35 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Canucks48c12,000$5,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,241.182572%18 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Sharks63c11,132$7,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,052.9859450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Sharks64c10,424$6,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,703.0561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Sharks64c9,517$6,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,090.888845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Sharks64c9,336$5,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,953.5237754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Sharks64c9,325$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.61,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Sharks65c9,089$5,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,884.3733450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Sharks64c9,000$5,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7601,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Sharks64c9,000$5,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,78043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Sharks64c9,000$5,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,78027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Canucks27c8,551$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,250.5122043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Sharks64c8,500$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449.9960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Sharks69c8,425$5,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,801.7111950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Canucks31c8,288$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700.8530259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Sharks64c8,000$5,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1204440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Sharks64c7,975$5,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10418641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8401…0fa1backed Canucks44c7,858$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,407.451030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Sharks65c7,848$5,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,101.273959%23 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x196e…e9d6backed Canucks35c7,703$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.71435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Sharks64c7,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4809751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sharks64c6,923$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.5420756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Sharks64c6,723$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,302.953243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed Sharks67c6,455$4,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,354.852050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Sharks66c6,406$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20024749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Canucks36c6,385$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,095.771,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Sharks65c6,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Canucks40c5,825$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.3212654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Canucks35c5,690$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.954450%22 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Sharks1c5,350$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Canucks35c5,343$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,475.771,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5f…7a4ebacked Sharks66c5,302$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Canucks36c5,197$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,325.9664242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Sharks64c5,100$3,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,26436948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Sharks63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Canucks23c4,782$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,681.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+175.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Sharks65c4,690$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.3819759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Canucks35c4,669$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.624252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Canucks35c4,226$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.7185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Sharks63c4,131$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.742,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Sharks65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9939752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Sharks65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9520450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sharks66c3,900$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.571,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Canucks37c3,900$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4579853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Canucks40c3,819$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.213437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sharks70c3,796$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.3889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Sharks62c3,750$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,325.0938849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Sharks68c3,537$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.4810947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Canucks34c3,529$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.4114940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Canucks34c3,333$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.6689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Canucks34c3,311$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.311153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Canucks22c3,294$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.1712146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Canucks49c3,278$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.85276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Canucks39c3,198$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.1942254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Sharks65c3,192$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.84841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Sharks59c3,113$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.1427037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Sharks68c3,035$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.2111551.3%59 W · 56 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Sharks66c3,023$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.383641.7%15 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked Sharks67c3,003$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda7d…54bfbacked Sharks71c3,000$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Canucks31c2,907$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.613,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Canucks32c2,856$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.961,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Sharks64c2,781$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.846758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Sharks64c2,718$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.057557.3%43 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Canucks54c2,706$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Canucks37c2,702$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.9799638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Sharks66c2,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6501643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Canucks36c2,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60031848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Canucks21c2,427$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.534040.3%137 W · 203 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Sharks64c2,249$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.362356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb602…1991backed Sharks72c2,230$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed Sharks60c2,200$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3295666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Sharks64c2,147$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.611243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Canucks40c2,143$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.9713333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Sharks65c2,029$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31924952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Sharks65c2,014$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.219150.8%97 W · 94 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Sharks66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32026750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc253…7cf5backed Sharks66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Canucks27c1,995$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.9333234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2230…69e5backed Sharks65c1,956$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2621233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.