World Politics · resolved market
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f6478783f99c86a2bbdadd520e407a8b8b6dbd62dbada09126d0dfab29ee99d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3825…ecd4backed No | 0c | 9,629$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…0c40backed No | 1c | 2,904$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 30c | 1,645$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.3 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked No | 15c | 1,396$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…247cbacked No | 33c | 1,336$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,161$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 10c | 1,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 6c | 1,083$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb8…f6ffbacked No | 22c | 1,050$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 12c | 1,036$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 10c | 968.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 7c | 890$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 26c | 815.06$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.48 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 5c | 725.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed No | 12c | 702.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 17c | 576.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 11c | 520.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 10c | 499.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 24c | 473.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 47c | 430.66$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.25 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 12c | 414.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…f32bbacked No | 26c | 390.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 74c | 358.36$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 341.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 4c | 326$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 18c | 279.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 22c | 256.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 64c | 234.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 59c | 227.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes | 78c | 222.21$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed No | 12c | 185$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 20c | 165.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 64c | 147.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 65c | 147.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 15c | 140.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…e68abacked No | 13c | 136.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 48c | 133.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…2a12backed No | 13c | 123.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…d5a6backed No | 17c | 118.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5ca8backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…10a4backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…a1e0backed No | 13c | 109.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ca…b241backed No | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e2debacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 15c | 102.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 100.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 22c | 89.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed No | 13c | 85.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 20c | 81.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 28c | 58.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 19c | 58.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked No | 19c | 56.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 60c | 50.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…b708backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 56c | 23.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +8.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?this page
- UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?No won
- UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.