World Politics · resolved market
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a725664c9061b9d9bcedde56f5b595c86e2715f17f27ef43a59005c28ecbf8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…541dbacked No | 2c | 546$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 541.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 12c | 532.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…f1e0backed Yes | 69c | 452.72$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 36c | 436.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 21c | 314.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 8c | 311.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 37c | 284.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e3…24eebacked No | 54c | 278.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 33c | 230.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 190.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…371ebacked No | 38c | 159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked No | 31c | 158.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 16c | 115.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 68c | 96.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed No | 44c | 95.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…c9babacked No | 54c | 93.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…3789backed No | 14c | 92.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 12c | 86.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 29c | 76.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 26c | 72.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 36c | 67.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 44c | 51.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 50.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…10a4backed Yes | 52c | 47.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 64c | 46.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…e639backed No | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 33c | 40.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 77c | 34.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…abc7backed No | 63c | 31.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 32c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked No | 40c | 30.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 52c | 30.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 59c | 27.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 50c | 25.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…2646backed No | 60c | 23.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…19a9backed No | 45c | 22.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 57c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 65c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?this page
- UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?No won
- UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.