Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bfedc44fb8372ad163bc49646062b9f9f22e8578a7da42dc8b813f77c4f54d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 45c | 30,558$13,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,780.86 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…d6a8backed No | 2c | 28,252$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 26,129$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.69 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…b5c0backed No | 5c | 11,139$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 0c | 8,078$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 46c | 7,805$3,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,198.98 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 4c | 7,011$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.03 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 68c | 6,255$4,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.11 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 15c | 5,026$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.49 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…06e1backed No | 4c | 3,853$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 12c | 3,801$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.9 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed Yes | 40c | 3,437$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 7c | 3,362$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 2c | 3,072$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…fe19backed Yes | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,521$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 74c | 2,378$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.98 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 5c | 1,933$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 59c | 1,724$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 40c | 1,589$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.18 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 78c | 1,289$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…4d3abacked No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 67c | 891.73$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.59 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 2c | 815.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 7c | 800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 7c | 780.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f1bbbacked No | 8c | 755$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed No | 2c | 723.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…825abacked Yes | 79c | 710.95$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 707.02$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.94 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…3771backed Yes | 34c | 469.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 4c | 460$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…1c02backed No | 4c | 409.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 39c | 303.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.71 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…fa03backed Yes | 49c | 290$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 46c | 275.81$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 273.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 258.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…90f6backed No | 11c | 246.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…daa0backed No | 8c | 235.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 5c | 235.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 70c | 210.54$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 37c | 197.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +467.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Yes | 37c | 186.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 160.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 56c | 157.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 29c | 145.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed Yes | 30c | 143.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…3a9dbacked Yes | 30c | 141.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 28c | 140.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…ab89backed Yes | 29c | 132.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 71c | 131.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 57c | 125.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…6245backed Yes | 33c | 114.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 107.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 88.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…0d96backed Yes | 34c | 81.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 62c | 78.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…db49backed Yes | 80c | 72.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Yes | 30c | 70.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b36abacked Yes | 33c | 69.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 16c | 68.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 67.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 31c | 60.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…33e4backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…d4c6backed Yes | 42c | 49.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e05…ae77backed Yes | 38c | 43.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…5e82backed Yes | 42c | 37.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb55…3eb2backed Yes | 56c | 36.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…87dabacked Yes | 57c | 35.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 71c | 35.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 40c | 31.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 59c | 29.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…75aebacked Yes | 50c | 28.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…2fa5backed Yes | 49c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed No | 74c | 26.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed Yes | 50c | 26.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8f22backed Yes | 59c | 19.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?this page
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.