TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,160 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No45c30,558$13,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,780.8615150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c1…d6a8backed No2c28,252$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c26,129$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.695111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2694…b5c0backed No5c11,139$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No0c8,078$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.111540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes46c7,805$3,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,198.987749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No4c7,011$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.033737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes68c6,255$4,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.114835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No15c5,026$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.492227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b9…06e1backed No4c3,853$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No12c3,801$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.96132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed Yes40c3,437$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.94560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+77.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed No7c3,362$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+70%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No2c3,072$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5524861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fd…fe19backed Yes42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes36c2,521$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.5128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes74c2,378$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.9814019.3%27 W · 113 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed No5c1,933$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes59c1,724$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No40c1,589$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.1824433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8553066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes78c1,289$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.126152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4b9…4d3abacked No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed No67c891.73$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.593348.5%16 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No2c815.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-72.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed No7c800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e48…95c7backed No7c780.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a6…f1bbbacked No8c755$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed No2c723.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…825abacked Yes79c710.95$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.35366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c707.02$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.9431534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b8c…3771backed Yes34c469.88$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+42.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked No4c460$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ce…1c02backed No4c409.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes39c303.78$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.713116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes31c290.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.322152.4%11 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+52.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x760e…fa03backed Yes49c290$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No46c275.81$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.311450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c273.17$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.0633421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No4c258.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ad…90f6backed No11c246.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.121225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c7…daa0backed No8c235.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No5c235.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes70c210.54$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes37c197.2$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.25450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+467.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9244…643cbacked Yes37c186.39$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c160.95$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9645035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes56c157.72$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.447925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed Yes29c145.84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.862070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+32.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14b2…ac16backed Yes30c143.03$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0a…3a9dbacked Yes30c141.57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes28c140.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.816154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f4…ab89backed Yes29c132.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.61425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No71c131.18$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.414330.2%13 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-51.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5421…449cbacked Yes57c125.52$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.855100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No12c117$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.629010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x882a…6245backed Yes33c114.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+201.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No40c107.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.366914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No11c96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No67c88.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.621155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9f…0d96backed Yes34c81.2$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No62c78.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.434452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48dd…db49backed Yes80c72.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Yes30c70.77$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e0…b36abacked Yes33c69.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.161050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No16c68.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.164957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No53c67.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.87875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+32.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x258b…db84backed Yes31c60.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+224.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d79…33e4backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c76…d4c6backed Yes42c49.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e05…ae77backed Yes38c43.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdbe…5e82backed Yes42c37.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb55…3eb2backed Yes56c36.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b51…87dabacked Yes57c35.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed No71c35.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes40c31.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick16cpaid+141.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes59c29.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.151384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x563d…75aebacked Yes50c28.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…2fa5backed Yes49c27.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.05425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7975…f4a2backed No74c26.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977b…0e58backed Yes50c26.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51df…8f22backed Yes59c19.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.12944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No57c18.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.