Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b31ec547ca949398ffd5bfdaa3a3b6b41389718b092fca8e6827c1dddd2b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ed…c4a2backed Yes | 0c | 12,880$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 0c | 5,635$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 22c | 2,964$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 17c | 2,553$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.45 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 47c | 2,015$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.88 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 46c | 1,861$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa564…e6f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,557$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,467$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.95 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 76c | 1,309$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 27c | 997.59$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 3c | 960.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 3c | 927.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 80c | 788.35$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.16 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 740.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 24c | 565.47$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.69 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 488.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.17 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…3771backed Yes | 23c | 459.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 22c | 261.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 34c | 227.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…9879backed Yes | 22c | 211.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…a175backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed Yes | 23c | 183.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 16c | 174.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 23c | 173.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +467.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 148.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 143.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 34c | 133.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7f16backed Yes | 26c | 115.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 74c | 97.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…dec0backed Yes | 52c | 92.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b36abacked Yes | 21c | 89.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 77c | 82.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…fa03backed Yes | 40c | 76.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 25c | 75.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…e146backed Yes | 22c | 72.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 21c | 71.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 54c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 51.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…e379backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb55…3eb2backed Yes | 34c | 48.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…2fa5backed Yes | 24c | 48.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…07f3backed No | 49c | 39.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 32c | 37.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 80c | 35.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 54c | 28.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…7bdfbacked No | 73c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed No | 73c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 58c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 77c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?this page
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?Yes won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.