Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c46c3a97015e828f9a8f1410d29649379b78c6070f7b72f706e3c3342f2200b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 3c | 16,937$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 8c | 13,418$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.56 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…b5c0backed Yes | 4c | 8,851$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…e1c1backed Yes | 11c | 7,781$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 2c | 7,698$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…fe19backed Yes | 8c | 6,396$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7484…cd2bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,909$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 80c | 5,862$4,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.48 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 8c | 5,524$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.27 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 2c | 3,852$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…a183backed Yes | 2c | 3,656$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 5c | 2,708$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,206$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 6c | 2,041$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…06e1backed Yes | 4c | 1,935$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055b…8abdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,894$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed Yes | 5c | 1,704$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 3c | 1,483$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cee…0d1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,309$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 8c | 1,182$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…f817backed Yes | 7c | 990.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 13c | 783.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 781.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281e…0f4bbacked Yes | 4c | 732.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 5c | 642.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 13c | 594.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…fee1backed Yes | 2c | 582.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed Yes | 22c | 560.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4590…c7e4backed Yes | 3c | 554.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 2c | 464.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 6c | 463.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 7c | 462.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eb49backed Yes | 7c | 450.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Yes | 6c | 382.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…903fbacked Yes | 7c | 347$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 4c | 337.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 328.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 4c | 315.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5e…b814backed Yes | 5c | 302.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 9c | 294.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 23c | 278.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 22c | 198.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 17c | 190.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…23ffbacked Yes | 7c | 177.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…2fa5backed Yes | 10c | 147.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 126.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…ab89backed Yes | 34c | 112.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 17c | 108.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 17c | 96.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 26c | 75.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…0d96backed Yes | 21c | 54.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 51.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…158ebacked Yes | 25c | 48.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 29.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…3771backed No | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 68c | 23.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…33e4backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?this page
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?Yes won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?No won
- Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.