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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,322,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,240,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,322,261 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes29c99,151$28,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,746.058432.1%27 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No64c70,851$45,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,223.511861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+83.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No71c50,113$35,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,451.866142.6%26 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No76c34,000$25,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,159.9916651.2%85 W · 81 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed Yes31c33,000$10,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,22010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes21c32,872$6,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,839.35175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-91.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes34c31,000$10,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,639.998348.2%40 W · 43 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes11c28,750$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.235910.2%6 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes21c24,943$5,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,228.184511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes34c21,337$7,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,212.033417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes9c20,832$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c20,437$15,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,491.9634634.7%120 W · 226 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdef6…f69abacked Yes35c18,702$6,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,538.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c18,514$13,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,846.0916431.7%52 W · 112 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7914…8ba1backed Yes36c17,589$6,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,357.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes36c14,948$5,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,307.711050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes26c14,431$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.7712138.8%47 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No72c14,127$10,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,931.135433.3%18 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa466…1c77backed Yes10c13,620$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fb…266cbacked Yes22c12,519$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No79c12,454$9,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.064238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes25c12,219$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.2315925.8%41 W · 118 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No73c12,063$8,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.311233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+162.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes35c11,488$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,005.285444.4%24 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+94.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes34c10,911$3,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,763.373514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-59.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No63c10,450$6,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,820.518033.9%61 W · 119 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No67c10,258$6,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,385.053240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes26c9,778$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c9,562$7,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.511437.7%43 W · 71 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes39c8,345$3,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,277.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes32c8,152$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.82425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed No79c8,000$6,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.931050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No77c7,833$6,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.2110143.6%44 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes14c7,676$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.81421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes32c7,085$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.9315655.8%87 W · 69 L+19.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf244…9b9ebacked No78c6,750$5,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes35c6,460$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,291.971877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+60%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked No61c6,327$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.311060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b9…5db9backed Yes24c6,324$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.19812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-82.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes31c5,910$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.21225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes37c5,889$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.091936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No72c5,839$4,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.916048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes34c5,796$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.761942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c5,716$4,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.7120139.3%79 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…0160backed No76c5,500$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No63c5,500$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0351442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes23c5,133$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.248937.1%33 W · 56 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No67c5,000$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes32c4,911$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.2824932.9%82 W · 167 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes29c4,646$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.11963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+206.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No78c4,470$3,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.474734%16 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes28c4,361$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.357644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No71c4,317$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.574443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed Yes12c4,085$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.341618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes9c4,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802119%4 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-68.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes29c3,820$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.085843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed No67c3,816$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.373138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+76%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes29c3,655$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.815143.1%22 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+6.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a34…a28bbacked Yes36c3,640$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No74c3,547$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.428734.5%30 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…74bcbacked No67c3,500$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1552100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No69c3,441$2,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.045345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes38c3,323$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.911258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No78c3,201$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.172254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x600e…7aacbacked Yes32c3,036$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes8c3,010$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.24221.4%9 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes13c3,000$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.982722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0802050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45380%0 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No69c2,963$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.08825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b7…2e99backed Yes35c2,959$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.4480%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes23c2,952$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes34c2,952$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6196…6208backed Yes6c2,900$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No76c2,859$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.342356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No77c2,732$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.464654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf22e…18f2backed Yes16c2,709$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c4…7904backed Yes1c2,700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f3…cadabacked Yes44c2,629$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No77c2,571$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.342157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+44.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes19c2,563$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.115334%18 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No79c2,558$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.892729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…12dfbacked No79c2,525$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.44650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes21c2,524$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No74c2,510$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.234156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes32c2,500$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes35c2,474$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.2117343.4%75 W · 98 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed Yes11c2,402$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.241637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed49…8783backed Yes26c2,355$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes30c2,309$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.732934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No76c2,307$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.055846.6%27 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c2,290$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.3935740.1%143 W · 214 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No74c2,240$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.885145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Yes14c2,200$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c2,194$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.7314143.3%61 W · 80 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes29c2,157$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.034334.9%15 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No76c2,143$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.95839.7%23 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76db…6987backed Yes27c2,122$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes26c2,094$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.32642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c2,018$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.3119641.8%82 W · 114 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.