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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$287,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31591.7%1 W · 58 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes13c20,816$2,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,774.0917352.6%91 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No54c11,612$6,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,383.2812238.5%47 W · 75 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No60c9,308$5,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,718.6236834.2%126 W · 242 L-1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes20c7,151$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.896443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes8c5,226$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.433514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-59.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes30c4,881$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.057054.3%38 W · 32 L+10.9wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+150.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes14c3,835$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.2216325.8%42 W · 121 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes18c3,755$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.341877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+60%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Yes17c3,740$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.752334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes19c3,396$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.693417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes16c3,289$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.1817544%77 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes29c2,554$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.115646.4%26 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes45c2,239$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.7418429.9%55 W · 129 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes11c2,187$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0610644.3%47 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b9…4fa7backed Yes42c2,079$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No74c1,815$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.0725536.5%93 W · 162 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+69.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7803…9e91backed Yes47c1,649$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.1320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes29c1,400$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.43464.7%22 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b3…c90bbacked Yes45c1,320$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes17c1,300$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.11225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes43c1,226$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.3210141.6%42 W · 59 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0e…b936backed Yes10c1,142$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed Yes10c1,072$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.42119%4 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes10c1,037$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.692441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes17c1,024$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.031957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3107949.4%39 W · 40 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No62c1,000$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.947844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6053…790cbacked Yes62c993.69$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes9c990.8$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.366930.4%21 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6565…c235backed Yes33c975$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes21c916.74$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.13225%8 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes35c895$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.253363.6%21 W · 12 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes9c886.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-80.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3761747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d9…11bcbacked Yes14c779.22$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.151127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c759.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4654312%65 W · 478 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed Yes14c755.1$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.49887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+36.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54f9…2697backed Yes68c730.82$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes25c730.62$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.645322.6%12 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed Yes21c702.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes63c694.07$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.485923.7%14 W · 45 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed Yes46c687$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.02933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c680.55$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6310634%36 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5749…357cbacked Yes29c669.09$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes16c574.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.313138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+76%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes16c552.02$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.583528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c519.72$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3435434.7%123 W · 231 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c506.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.442044.9%10 W · 194 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes30c500$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.51952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2357934.2%27 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No67c499.99$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.16835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-46%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes16c477.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-91%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc011…3b70backed No66c437$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes24c408.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.767349.3%36 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2334…cd00backed Yes64c400$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x425b…b6c4backed Yes62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d8b…1fb1backed No32c400$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes14c366.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506428.1%18 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes15c347$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.013046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+95.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes63c320$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.69553.7%51 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes42c312.19$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9923060.9%140 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x384c…2688backed Yes46c309.27$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14111328.3%32 W · 81 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-6.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed Yes8c299.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes37c294.41$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.935750.9%29 W · 28 L+11.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+82.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes37c285.58$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.934032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc8…d0dbbacked No69c285$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.35862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No44c251$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.511224.1%27 W · 85 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes33c244$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.528350.6%42 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No79c240$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3511250%56 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacb…5aecbacked Yes31c240$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.821060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes16c233.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.565334%18 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed Yes22c230.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.191136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes14c227.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5421431.3%67 W · 147 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc7…23f9backed Yes46c225$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5a…02eabacked Yes8c222.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes7c216$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.785211.5%6 W · 46 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes62c209.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.191030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No79c205.43$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8916945%76 W · 93 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bc…1473backed Yes66c204.81$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2d…6d8dbacked Yes46c201.59$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5950%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x55f3…1a88backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.46747.8%32 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.81020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-68.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6566…ea1ebacked No31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes39c196.07$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3411241.1%46 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abe…1446backed No77c186.86$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc320…3d45backed Yes39c170$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick32cpaid-88.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes16c170$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes13c152.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No79c151.49$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.085850%29 W · 29 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+55.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe811…3fcebacked Yes67c150.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…0306backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Yes34c121.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c116.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8149036.7%180 W · 310 L-35.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes21c114.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.323545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.