Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700f9ab484a213babfc4a22df43bc0c7e85f11f4b920ec06a37175205833527e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 60c | 2,081$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.48 | 255 | 36.5%93 W · 162 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 17c | 1,710$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.65 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…3be9backed Yes | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 486$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 73c | 481$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 463$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.89 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 60c | 459.63$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.91 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 377$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 62c | 252.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…893dbacked No | 62c | 247.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 20c | 220.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…1446backed No | 61c | 206.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 201$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 175 | 20.6%36 W · 139 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 251 | 32.7%82 W · 169 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked No | 61c | 96.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 490 | 36.7%180 W · 310 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 59.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 58.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 57.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 56.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…acd4backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 38.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 44c | 36.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…10d8backed No | 63c | 33.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes won
- Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Nancy Mace be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will William Timmons be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.