Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e7efebdf859f60c1ab94495eb2b8da0cc8b4ab46e56098691be5f8e2ab772c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $371,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $376,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 56,994$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 52,020$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.4 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 32,192$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.06 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,503$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.61 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 2c | 13,627$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.54 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 1c | 8,976$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,880$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 0c | 5,630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…3a6dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,993$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,878$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 3c | 3,764$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85af…c07fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,835$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,725$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 368 | 34.2%126 W · 242 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…5db9backed Yes | 2c | 2,669$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 3c | 2,545$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,404$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,677$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,582$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 2c | 1,116$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,026$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 2c | 900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 646.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes won
- Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Nancy Mace be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will William Timmons be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.