TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8a2…54c2backed No6c15,343$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.472729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3489…7935backed Yes70c13,462$9,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,973.88560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4410…3c01backed No39c12,452$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,859.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes75c9,299$6,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes47c7,847$3,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,197.726237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…b71abacked Yes54c6,351$3,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d90…bf35backed No54c5,531$3,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,011.261330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes49c3,985$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3183…c5ebbacked No52c3,609$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.192147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes45c3,221$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.241546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed No34c2,874$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.91421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No39c2,533$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No27c2,498$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.391631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked No35c2,365$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.07714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No49c2,293$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.483046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes54c2,045$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.0419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed No54c1,938$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.763724.3%9 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes52c1,590$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x731a…033fbacked No43c1,492$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No36c1,390$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f2…3860backed No3c1,305$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes37c1,224$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.327536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No40c1,156$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.2547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes52c1,152$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.961464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x310e…5050backed Yes62c1,131$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.61742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes47c1,116$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.1514250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe446…77a8backed No46c1,109$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce77…dcefbacked Yes55c1,068$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No36c976.58$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.99358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Yes51c957$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd900…a592backed No64c950.46$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No33c913.77$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.559525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No48c902.25$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes75c900$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2252969%20 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+52.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No23c856.43$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.534157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ee0…164cbacked No35c837.11$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc0…991dbacked Yes37c812.03$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2394…d0e8backed No3c801.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No22c799.98$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17611425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a0…2babbacked No23c791.11$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No40c787$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.543641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes65c774.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.53943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed No42c766.62$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No21c757.91$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.413422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes61c753.05$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.117824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No30c728.08$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.618257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x270a…4246backed No34c719.16$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.321643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e3…b078backed Yes52c657.52$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+94.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked No41c633.08$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.024427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No47c599.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.9945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes49c570$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.72254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x417d…7be6backed Yes37c529.43$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c1…ab9bbacked No32c521.68$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.422751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes73c499.98$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1353056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No23c481.12$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107030%21 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…effebacked No47c475.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2261050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+140.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1470…3c26backed No56c455.19$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd167…c23cbacked No40c431.66$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24fb…973ebacked No22c423.27$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.121711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-83.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes43c420$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.825655.4%31 W · 25 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes76c419.95$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No39c408.11$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1636945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb629…374ebacked No26c391.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3607…c08bbacked No26c382.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13c5…61e1backed Yes58c350$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes71c349.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10211549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e6…060cbacked No62c335.4$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.641844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ad…90f6backed No27c326.93$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No47c325$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.152774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes50c323$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.58433.3%28 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6795…c55dbacked Yes51c314.91$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.311154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes22c313$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.146734.3%23 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+67.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x856f…2f64backed Yes44c309.96$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ad…34debacked Yes56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes74c277.71$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.471573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c272.89$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5211124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf42b…15c4backed No53c269.98$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes44c262.64$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.26141%25 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked No44c255.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.732860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf379…c1cabacked No57c250$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes45c244$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1344339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7990…4b29backed No42c240.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes38c236.1$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.692740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked No64c229.2$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.41752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes56c226.93$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.999041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551a…86b9backed Yes37c219.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+98.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x161c…a9dbbacked No47c218.74$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…9025backed No53c210.4$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.381457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105240.4%21 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa935…e865backed No38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes66c197.29$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.715047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes42c197.21$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.09837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes62c192.3$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.07837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcca…816dbacked No41c188.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5392…5d1bbacked No35c186.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.