AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33202ea27cf7fbf8d387c6ef1e0eb956dc999ffb96385b6fe67b84ea4a364952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 6c | 15,343$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.47 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7935backed Yes | 70c | 13,462$9,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4410…3c01backed No | 39c | 12,452$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,859.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 75c | 9,299$6,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 47c | 7,847$3,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,197.72 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…b71abacked Yes | 54c | 6,351$3,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…bf35backed No | 54c | 5,531$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 49c | 3,985$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked No | 52c | 3,609$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 45c | 3,221$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 34c | 2,874$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 39c | 2,533$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 27c | 2,498$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 35c | 2,365$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 49c | 2,293$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.48 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,045$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.04 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 54c | 1,938$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.76 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 52c | 1,590$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…033fbacked No | 43c | 1,492$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 36c | 1,390$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f2…3860backed No | 3c | 1,305$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 37c | 1,224$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.3 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 1,156$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.25 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,152$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed Yes | 62c | 1,131$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,116$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.15 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe446…77a8backed No | 46c | 1,109$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…dcefbacked Yes | 55c | 1,068$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 36c | 976.58$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 51c | 957$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd900…a592backed No | 64c | 950.46$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 33c | 913.77$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.55 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 48c | 902.25$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 75c | 900$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 23c | 856.43$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.53 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…164cbacked No | 35c | 837.11$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…991dbacked Yes | 37c | 812.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…d0e8backed No | 3c | 801.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 22c | 799.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a0…2babbacked No | 23c | 791.11$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 40c | 787$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.54 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 65c | 774.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed No | 42c | 766.62$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 21c | 757.91$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 753.05$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.1 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 30c | 728.08$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.61 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…4246backed No | 34c | 719.16$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…b078backed Yes | 52c | 657.52$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 41c | 633.08$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.02 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 599.99$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 49c | 570$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…7be6backed Yes | 37c | 529.43$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked No | 32c | 521.68$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 73c | 499.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 23c | 481.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…effebacked No | 47c | 475.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…3c26backed No | 56c | 455.19$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd167…c23cbacked No | 40c | 431.66$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked No | 22c | 423.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 43c | 420$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.82 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 76c | 419.95$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 39c | 408.11$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.16 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…374ebacked No | 26c | 391.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…c08bbacked No | 26c | 382.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 58c | 350$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 71c | 349.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…060cbacked No | 62c | 335.4$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…90f6backed No | 27c | 326.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 47c | 325$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 323$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…c55dbacked Yes | 51c | 314.91$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 22c | 313$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…2f64backed Yes | 44c | 309.96$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 74c | 277.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 272.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…15c4backed No | 53c | 269.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 44c | 262.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.2 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked No | 44c | 255.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…c1cabacked No | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 45c | 244$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…4b29backed No | 42c | 240.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 38c | 236.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 64c | 229.2$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 56c | 226.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 37c | 219.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…a9dbbacked No | 47c | 218.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed No | 53c | 210.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 197.29$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 42c | 197.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 62c | 192.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…816dbacked No | 41c | 188.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…5d1bbacked No | 35c | 186.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.