TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$953,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$895,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $953,890 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x64c8…73cebacked No12c371,436$45,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,724.471968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No15c35,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.995145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No18c27,388$4,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,892.136132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No14c23,765$3,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,326.945841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No14c20,173$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.518042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed No21c11,314$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.811030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50015150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No6c9,455$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.284242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No15c6,791$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.979035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No14c6,326$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.8914729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.997749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No16c5,911$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.138638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5e…f1b0backed Yes78c4,830$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No15c4,485$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.095738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ad…90f6backed No19c4,125$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.571225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No11c4,121$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.794032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed No7c4,000$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No32c3,631$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.1137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-88.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes79c3,493$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.426355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No19c3,345$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.513143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes75c3,232$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.534333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No14c2,656$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.2910340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed No15c2,613$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes78c2,496$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.087448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No20c2,454$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.3221033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No17c2,000$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.251136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No16c2,000$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No14c1,988$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8918237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No19c1,874$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.831717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No16c1,800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.03714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No19c1,593$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.542025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No14c1,320$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.993452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No8c1,316$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.71216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No18c1,283$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.18740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes78c1,162$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.575030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No15c1,140$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17110739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No3c1,100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No9c881.87$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.314841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No16c840.48$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.092941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes74c792.51$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.79650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No23c787.27$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No11c764.32$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.053836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No11c736.03$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.75244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No11c701$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0218041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No10c689.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.395244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No15c667.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.514847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes65c609.53$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No9c599.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.666141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2023…4bd6backed Yes70c587$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No19c570$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.31947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No21c553.45$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.221723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No19c550.8$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6624831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No16c546.18$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.252646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes61c536.25$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4513625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked No10c527$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.72254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+125.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No11c507.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.736036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…73cfbacked No14c500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.94933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No7c494.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.644940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No10c487.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.035137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked Yes79c478.95$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed No16c474.39$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.95141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No7c467.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1514356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No17c460.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.594942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No10c459.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.754940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes77c455$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.957731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0731…5194backed No12c419.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No18c410.3$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2810947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked No13c390$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No4c385.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No12c370.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.235139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes54c363.57$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.725747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No19c346.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.489343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x039b…9b6cbacked No23c345$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.752420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No15c323.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.794126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No12c309.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.995135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No18c292.12$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.234346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c39…f4f2backed No7c269.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No18c262.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8110034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No18c258$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6206…00eebacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked No33c241.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No17c240$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.817140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed No4c239.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No9c238.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.524949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No11c236$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde88…144cbacked No9c220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes41c208.11$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1916544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes77c200.02$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.657437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5424433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes73c199.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No11c199.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b9…8179backed Yes41c199.24$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x747b…a2d4backed No16c198$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes69c190.47$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.474544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No6c183.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.892326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…41bebacked Yes76c175.69$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked No45c173.69$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.15137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-86.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1452…449cbacked No9c163.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No42c163.36$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6766914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.