World Politics · resolved market
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dfc31e647a10fafdc77e89826a93a85d1420981b7978ec8ce9ef04351ad1ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,758,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,758,687 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce78…4bccbacked Yes | 0c | 1,506,865$3,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,936.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 448,000$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 13c | 42,236$5,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,584.97 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed Yes | 0c | 41,708$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 40,919$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.15 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 2c | 35,371$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 24,453$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b94…1c4bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,541$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a64…440abacked Yes | 2c | 21,393$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 13c | 19,590$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.84 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 2c | 18,889$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 2c | 18,728$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.56 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 8c | 17,609$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…0468backed Yes | 2c | 14,800$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 6c | 14,445$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 20c | 13,861$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,825.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…f836backed Yes | 1c | 11,942$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…2694backed Yes | 16c | 10,861$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 10,303$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…0e10backed Yes | 0c | 10,250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 1c | 10,177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed Yes | 11c | 9,613$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +1,009.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 9,500$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,271$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 8c | 8,248$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…c208backed Yes | 0c | 8,223$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 3c | 7,553$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 7,434$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.93 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 3c | 7,178$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.46 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…d730backed Yes | 0c | 7,090$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 6c | 5,823$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.9 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 6c | 5,807$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.82 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 5,314$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,078$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.34 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,985$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 1c | 4,551$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 7c | 4,500$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…93b0backed Yes | 1c | 4,308$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 16c | 4,199$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 29c | 4,036$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.38 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…132fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,749$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 2c | 3,650$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 2c | 3,618$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…01a5backed Yes | 1c | 3,552$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,506$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Yes | 6c | 3,373$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 3,266$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 0c | 2,782$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 2,776$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 2,750$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,620$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…fa57backed Yes | 7c | 2,539$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 2,421$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 1c | 2,295$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84b…7212backed Yes | 2c | 2,004$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 71c | 1,998$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 3c | 1,930$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,755$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 78c | 1,701$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 1,700$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.71 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,697$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 4c | 1,682$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,640$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 14c | 1,606$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.37 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…c3b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,541$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,510$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,502$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…4da4backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 19c | 1,486$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 60c | 1,475$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.6 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…1afabacked Yes | 1c | 1,462$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95d…da6dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,378$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Yes | 4c | 1,341$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,329$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…c398backed Yes | 1c | 1,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…89b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,314$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed Yes | 1c | 1,313$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2a52backed Yes | 1c | 1,303$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,289$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…f1edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,282$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,262$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 1c | 1,256$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b9…ad8fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,248$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…b9fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…6c78backed Yes | 2c | 1,179$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 2c | 1,120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 59c | 1,111$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.48 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…d884backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 10c | 1,067$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 13c | 1,065$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,044$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…4637backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cc…e9a2backed Yes | 2c | 920$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Yes | 4c | 918.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Yes won
- Will FDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.