TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$542,346
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$601,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $542,346 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7bc1…8db4backed No26c62,151$16,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,162.992646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No36c47,228$16,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,971.935350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes63c44,968$28,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,590.8715150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No26c38,549$9,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,883.9734333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked No37c36,110$13,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,240.691586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c21,100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes72c19,242$13,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,424.31752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes64c18,983$12,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,912.5114356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes59c17,230$10,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,060.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No8c13,162$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.468133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No38c11,902$4,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,511.182532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes67c11,650$7,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,880.131376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeed7…16b2backed No30c11,129$3,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No43c10,500$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5503246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes72c9,905$7,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.391070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No33c8,329$2,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,722.9721161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No29c8,000$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,302.821136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes64c7,800$4,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814.832152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x690b…bd2cbacked Yes62c7,107$4,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes60c6,852$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,727.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No9c6,499$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.882630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes60c6,358$3,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,543.131060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No41c5,480$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.592166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9502227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No4c4,999$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes68c4,734$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes66c4,545$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.324744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.996132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No38c3,979$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.071758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+62.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes71c3,791$2,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.17875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes60c3,780$2,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5126750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes59c3,000$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2207448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No25c2,870$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.4314729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3872…bb1dbacked No14c2,745$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.311241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Yes60c2,268$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.651050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43b9…5db9backed No8c2,252$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No31c2,228$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.1910245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No31c2,227$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.2716833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No29c2,066$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.479035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36c…1077backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05e…209cbacked Yes63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No29c1,847$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.033743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed No17c1,752$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc753…5820backed Yes63c1,731$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No30c1,663$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.624443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes75c1,633$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.286152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea97…5ac0backed Yes63c1,631$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8604…fd3abacked Yes74c1,545$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.04850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes71c1,533$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4374723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Yes60c1,512$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes61c1,500$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5851241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No28c1,427$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8812643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes67c1,415$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.7813625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33cc…563dbacked Yes59c1,366$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd76…0434backed No42c1,354$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No23c1,260$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2133421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c1,241$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.331534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes80c1,206$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.561154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07b…6ee4backed Yes70c1,139$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Yes60c1,134$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.81366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes59c1,129$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed2…3422backed Yes72c984.74$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c928.84$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4718237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes73c900$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6610034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes63c898.69$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3303452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No18c803.61$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.691323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes62c769.39$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.2115431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No28c758$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5517140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x815a…af37backed No23c730.54$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.021643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3a…3cf5backed Yes59c721.57$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ade…78e9backed No42c691.93$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes69c680.33$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.184100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes72c665.16$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.471861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes68c664.72$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.715100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+106.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No28c640.79$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.662123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No9c610.74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x262c…f803backed Yes60c605$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes62c600$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9183…c349backed Yes69c580.52$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.523100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes64c580$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.53321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9517…f0b3backed No46c572.19$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+67.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes62c560$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes71c555$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.445100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c65…d60dbacked Yes66c548.48$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No25c546.72$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.681723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No2c529.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.375137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf379…c1cabacked Yes71c503.59$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1754531.1%14 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01ad…90f6backed No29c493.42$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.091225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No23c489.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.14143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Yes59c453.98$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc320…3d45backed No24c417$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0890%0 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No34c414$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.349326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde88…144cbacked Yes57c413$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.591533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed No24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed No17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6209…a62ebacked Yes59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes70c399.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.