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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes22c10,341$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.8634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes2c2,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No77c1,996$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.559035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No77c1,804$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.143743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c1,425$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.6133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes26c1,227$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.555552.7%29 W · 26 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c1,195$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.5513243.9%58 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes15c946.18$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.164744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No80c924.67$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9818337.7%69 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x815a…af37backed Yes21c757.46$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.071643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No74c712.05$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.3910345.6%47 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes24c704.44$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.25141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Yes30c599.99$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb6…93f6backed No68c576.83$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.624100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No79c556.71$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4816833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12031534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1457425.7%19 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes23c493.34$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5833521.8%73 W · 262 L-24.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9f2…5508backed Yes12c475.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes22c448.71$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1121161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes30c315.64$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.693450%17 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes30c314.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.56636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No75c303.25$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5110441.3%43 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes5c301.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4313625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes21c286$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.065738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes21c280.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5410133.7%34 W · 67 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes15c263.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.692123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No76c255.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.789542.1%40 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes23c252.08$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.123630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c249$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9617240.7%70 W · 102 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked Yes19c245.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6850%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13f3…0becbacked Yes26c230.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No79c229.29$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.914951%25 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c225$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.112545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…c5bebacked Yes22c224.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes31c205$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.45258%2 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-83.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No77c204.24$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.559846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c203$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8745035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607425.7%19 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-39.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e4…6ef7backed No80c198.63$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No77c196.95$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.673452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes23c180.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.232751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes15c154.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.33933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No78c143$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.589147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No76c111.66$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6312049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No74c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ee…5996backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf607…afa9backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes17c96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.983773%27 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ae0…b747backed Yes13c92.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.937537.3%28 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No77c89.98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.643345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No74c86.55$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.74032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a6…c753backed Yes24c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No76c68.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.264346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes20c66.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.324134.1%14 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No77c66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.184949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No78c65.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7615531%48 W · 107 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2311048.2%53 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed5…ceefbacked Yes24c64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.621155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes23c59.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.824555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes23c54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.132161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78b6…bc74backed Yes23c49.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes28c48.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No76c44.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No76c41.72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.032653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x840e…b9edbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c38.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.483751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf4…328dbacked No77c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No76c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.885255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No77c34.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.924562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No74c32.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.312871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d8…76a7backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d9…012dbacked No77c27.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d3…e307backed No79c24.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.192157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked No76c24.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.843333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44c…28c5backed No75c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No76c23.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.622060%12 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0407…bcfdbacked No76c23.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No76c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.269010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…a2c5backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc83…37efbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ee…0662backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No77c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f6…e7fdbacked No69c18.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed5…0483backed No73c17.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed No80c15.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No79c12.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.