TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,296 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes39c36,766$14,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,497.1515150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No73c12,569$9,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.045841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No49c7,874$3,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,026.736152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No44c5,744$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.597749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No60c4,376$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.421161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked No71c4,331$3,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.851586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No45c3,254$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.2310361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes33c2,716$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.611330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes40c2,655$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.9113625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No64c2,009$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.7924433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes33c1,937$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+75.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No78c1,642$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.5118237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes4c1,616$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.435111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes24c1,208$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2214356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes23c1,118$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8719643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…8e0ebacked Yes41c1,076$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b91…edd9backed No79c999.95$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes22c806.8$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No50c745.77$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.484443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No69c734.98$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.763043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No77c667.95$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.893751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes22c653.18$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.445754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes42c604.28$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.797448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No58c602.11$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.212634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes35c520.54$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4816544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No58c509$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.727852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes48c500.96$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.462142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.782445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2409…fbecbacked Yes46c490.31$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes33c464.66$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.041233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed Yes38c439.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.433151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes29c428.45$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1818041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c414.53$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.314729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed Yes22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.74136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed No77c398.44$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+168.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.57843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…86b3backed Yes21c370.38$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c366.1$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5610946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes31c359.11$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.967925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No78c357$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3124861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked Yes14c350.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c350$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9312545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c336.7$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.798149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes28c307.32$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.595018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes34c306.3$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5222848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes55c300$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.214748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c281.22$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9149411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c281$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6317140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No64c275$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.324562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes39c264.76$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.751428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No43c263.16$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes42c262.45$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.638535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No55c257$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.791266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed No78c254.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.791346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdca…5382backed Yes39c241.23$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+100.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c233$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8412049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No62c222.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.741323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes26c220.61$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.438741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes31c210.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.996132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa67…19e1backed Yes34c203.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes42c200.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.335642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9431434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes40c199.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.987437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No67c194.11$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.311522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No66c184.69$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6415431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No71c182$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.365244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes44c180$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.28343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c165$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8710947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c161.31$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.221155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes6c160.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes14c157.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.282166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes37c152.09$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.731323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c145.05$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0933238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No71c143.48$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.782352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd6…10d4backed Yes33c137.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c125.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.679010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No73c123.51$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.861573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No78c120$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.46744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes30c115.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.137524%18 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb21f…5bbbbacked Yes21c110.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes19c101.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2922833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x202b…971abacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes31c97.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.088757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes37c97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.212231.1%38 W · 84 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No32c93.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.712657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x2f61…a33bbacked Yes48c90.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.31464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No59c86.56$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3334129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes16c84.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4113919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes23c83.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6118310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No69c82.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.482365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c82.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2233421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.397451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c79.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1166914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked Yes53c79.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No63c78.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3620542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.