Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb336f26caa6ff99926dfb36d594f7f04658bca93dba6cae88b406c641c2b0e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 53,583$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 80c | 5,889$4,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.17 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 2c | 2,716$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 3c | 2,529$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 21c | 1,992$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.19 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 1,457$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 1,453$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.19 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,200$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +82%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,081$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…01f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 11c | 923.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 3c | 721.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 20c | 485$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 17c | 447.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 4c | 370.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 15c | 323.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 311$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 22c | 241$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 232.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 22c | 208.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 204$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 184.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 159.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 21c | 145$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 10c | 138.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 20c | 133.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…188fbacked Yes | 14c | 127$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 11c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 12c | 93.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 31.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Yes won
- Will Jason Cherry win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Kenneth Pinet win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.