TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75d4…4027backed Yes69c30,378$20,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,405.074665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ef…39b6backed No31c23,330$7,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,214.081741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes72c21,753$15,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,125.862123.8%5 W · 16 L-6.9wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-60%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed No28c18,500$5,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1403333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed No34c17,862$6,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,042.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes72c8,858$6,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,456.783568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafb8…f956backed Yes60c5,992$3,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.0518100%18 W · 0 L+6.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b47…6338backed No10c5,173$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.091553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No22c2,959$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.345215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd869…8d8cbacked No18c2,665$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes60c2,583$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.94420.5%9 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No26c2,155$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.8911129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes60c2,069$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.4817540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e9…5250backed No5c1,661$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2314037.1%52 W · 88 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe073…18d9backed No19c1,203$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4805…9727backed No59c1,182$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No52c999.97$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.982040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x673d…e929backed No9c962$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.58450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed No10c856$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed No42c817.52$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdc…5759backed No11c723.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45ef…143bbacked No7c535.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.514955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes64c494.6$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9e…456bbacked Yes50c489.6$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No48c487.96$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.592941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No30c441.67$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3613337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No28c397.34$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1416453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70e7…4a70backed Yes18c377$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa781…cd08backed No53c373.85$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No31c352.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2413851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25f…a460backed No35c339.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c329.42$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.381,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No18c320.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.079745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No12c319$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.162119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4e…a03abacked No17c294.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No10c288.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.872128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce93…6d96backed No7c267$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c261.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5948414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee76…8fedbacked Yes47c255.16$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.373378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2b7b…ae8bbacked No46c239.12$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No34c219.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8320841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed No12c214$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c211$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.992781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf649…9550backed No41c209.64$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2597…239bbacked No8c190.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb72…7902backed Yes47c190.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8070…8c6dbacked No53c190$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae9c…a224backed No9c134.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43de…d465backed No30c133.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc8…0d99backed Yes47c130.08$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.01887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes78c129$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.385100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No40c120.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes57c105$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53cb…69babacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323250%16 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3354…1c05backed No12c85.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ff…916fbacked No42c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.311233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3ed…afd3backed Yes59c79.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.581464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde1c…fd28backed No59c75.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1f…6f1bbacked Yes60c74.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb089…7ea6backed Yes79c74.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3165…ddddbacked No35c72.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d05…de5abacked Yes61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No35c68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.116619.7%13 W · 53 L-14.5wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-65%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No49c67.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa03a…e64ebacked No30c60.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.46152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcb…b296backed Yes53c56.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.631729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.7wins-0.27per pick57cpaid-49.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No28c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.683658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No45c51.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.413026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d31…1ff3backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes70c49.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9620668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa642…7811backed Yes74c47.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No28c43.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3513333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec77…6397backed No35c42.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ad…d823backed No36c41.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd63…3c71backed No39c38.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked No31c36.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.212245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes60c36.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5616741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb7…3647backed Yes57c34.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.932343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No40c31.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.473066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+52.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f3f…cb14backed Yes46c28.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe52d…b4dbbacked Yes73c27.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9435…e478backed Yes68c25.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes65c19.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.999244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes73c19.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.367969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7350…4b0bbacked Yes71c16.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f3…be43backed Yes80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.