Movies · resolved market
Will Rosamund Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0771a8748f75865f6312a23ccb1038cfd422ae64150e15e634b5e8e82d4a0143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed No | 32c | 13,116$4,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,181.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 80c | 13,007$10,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.69 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 4c | 12,641$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.98 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…f956backed Yes | 66c | 8,462$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.98 | 18 | 100%18 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 28c | 3,380$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 2,348$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.41 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 16c | 2,212$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.25 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 2c | 1,800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…5759backed No | 8c | 1,519$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fd28backed No | 26c | 1,414$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 27c | 1,344$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.52 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked Yes | 70c | 1,171$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.29 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 7c | 1,062$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…cd08backed No | 21c | 1,027$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…8ccabacked No | 1c | 1,021$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 1,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.61 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 1c | 970.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 8c | 810$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…18d9backed No | 8c | 686$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa642…7811backed No | 21c | 654.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 21c | 595.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 14c | 584$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 24c | 485$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 76c | 485$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 47c | 483$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked No | 18c | 453.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked No | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 53c | 369$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 19c | 355$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 44c | 350.96$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.45 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed No | 15c | 344.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…9550backed No | 24c | 319.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 318.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…c0e6backed No | 36c | 289.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 13c | 283.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 263.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…0d99backed Yes | 68c | 247.61$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…649abacked No | 28c | 192.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…1c05backed No | 10c | 157.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 75c | 148$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 79c | 146.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…ddddbacked No | 19c | 146.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…5afdbacked No | 27c | 139.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Yes | 74c | 136.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 37c | 112.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 29c | 109.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 40c | 82.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 80.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…2725backed Yes | 64c | 77.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4df…6a6fbacked No | 25c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed No | 29c | 61.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…bc9ebacked No | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 34c | 51.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…7b0bbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…25abbacked Yes | 65c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…2611backed Yes | 79c | 28.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…69babacked Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 56c | 27.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 67c | 25.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 61c | 24.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rosamund Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?this page
- Will Araminta Gun get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Eloise Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Posy Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Sophie Baek get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?Yes won
- Will Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.