Middle East · resolved market
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15fcf94587789dcd26efd4a31a1dbc8ff80c3c0bbfed1ca7eb90a054fda6efbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 20c | 15,276$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.23 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 73c | 13,319$9,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645.44 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…e306backed Yes | 38c | 12,932$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,866.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 69c | 4,559$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.88 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 73c | 4,518$3,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.96 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed No | 74c | 3,847$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 32c | 3,375$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.95 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 52c | 3,300$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.99 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 70c | 2,963$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.97 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,928$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.08 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 4c | 2,062$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 5c | 2,056$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.99 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 16c | 1,686$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed Yes | 18c | 1,598$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,552$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,414$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 23c | 1,402$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…91e3backed Yes | 38c | 1,320$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,314$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.81 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 60c | 1,300$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,241$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…b5c0backed Yes | 18c | 1,104$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,100$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed Yes | 6c | 1,045$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 32c | 1,011$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.57 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc5…70f6backed Yes | 14c | 922$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 830.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 78c | 770.65$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.65 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes | 33c | 749.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 77c | 700.34$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 72c | 699.97$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 65c | 699.95$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.98 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 69c | 677.24$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.94 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…a20dbacked Yes | 32c | 655.39$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 16c | 632$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 80c | 600.03$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 66c | 599.97$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 34c | 588.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 570.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed Yes | 19c | 542.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 78c | 542.12$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 25c | 539.58$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 72c | 535.46$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 66c | 533.21$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.65 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 74c | 530$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 15c | 523$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1765…a60bbacked Yes | 5c | 522.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes | 19c | 520.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 71c | 499.99$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 78c | 492.21$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…607cbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 6c | 475.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacfd…1e04backed Yes | 21c | 475.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed Yes | 28c | 465.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a5…7d0abacked Yes | 22c | 464.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Yes | 19c | 464.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…b920backed Yes | 33c | 454.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…7594backed Yes | 15c | 451.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…3ba8backed Yes | 6c | 441.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes | 29c | 427.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 32c | 408.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 406.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 60c | 400.52$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 32c | 400$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 28c | 400$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 7c | 383.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a2…bef8backed Yes | 28c | 351.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 68c | 337.81$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5c…f68ebacked Yes | 30c | 335.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a8…62c9backed Yes | 30c | 334.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 330.69$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 327.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 308.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 7c | 302.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…e314backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 273.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 267.88$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…3406backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…9b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 266.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…374ebacked Yes | 15c | 266$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3b…3ce4backed Yes | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked No | 73c | 235.68$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 13c | 226.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…7fe8backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 199.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.