TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,003 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes20c15,276$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.236336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No73c13,319$9,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,645.4421531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7289…e306backed Yes38c12,932$4,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,866.39911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No69c4,559$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.8838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No73c4,518$3,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.9612654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed No74c3,847$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.951952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes32c3,375$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.954337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No52c3,300$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.9915234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96035347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No70c2,963$2,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.972268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes22c2,928$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.08230%0 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed Yes4c2,062$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.071711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes5c2,056$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9213532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes28c2,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5702821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes19c2,000$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.9912333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed Yes16c1,686$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.762441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ae…57e8backed Yes18c1,598$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-57.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe467…437fbacked Yes6c1,552$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes42c1,414$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14be…4498backed Yes23c1,402$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.842040%8 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+77.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa577…91e3backed Yes38c1,320$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes24c1,314$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.815324.5%13 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No60c1,300$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51628126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,241$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.924625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eaf…b5c0backed Yes18c1,104$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes2c1,100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes26c1,100$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2884136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ca…2443backed Yes6c1,045$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.153023.3%7 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-56.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Yes32c1,011$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.572931%9 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33012744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dc5…70f6backed Yes14c922$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c830.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.554195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No78c770.65$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.6510451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes33c749.56$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No77c700.34$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.816942%29 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No72c699.97$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.9916061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No65c699.95$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.9820247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No69c677.24$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.9418151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198a…a20dbacked Yes32c655.39$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes16c632$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.122458.3%14 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No80c600.03$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4512441.1%51 W · 73 L-14.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No66c599.97$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.993363.6%21 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+30.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes34c588.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c570.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.451,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3106…23a8backed Yes19c542.74$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.123836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1181…9e90backed No78c542.12$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.043450%17 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes25c539.58$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1332345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No72c535.46$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7519056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No66c533.21$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.657851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No74c530$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.95570.9%39 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes15c523$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.452748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1765…a60bbacked Yes5c522.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes19c520.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb48b…04ebbacked No71c499.99$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1438357.8%48 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No78c492.21$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.112740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe433…607cbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+42.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed Yes6c475.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.833522.9%8 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacfd…1e04backed Yes21c475.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf233…6ab2backed Yes28c465.52$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.552657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a5…7d0abacked Yes22c464.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13af…b19fbacked Yes19c464.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8f…b920backed Yes33c454.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe131…7594backed Yes15c451.2$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c8…3ba8backed Yes6c441.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes29c427.58$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.722025%5 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes32c408.65$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6824224.4%59 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes13c406.97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9128827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x952b…edfabacked No60c400.52$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.36475%48 W · 16 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+50%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes32c400$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.42920.7%6 W · 23 L-7.3wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-69.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes28c400$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11311016.4%18 W · 92 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes7c383.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8317129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77a2…bef8backed Yes28c351.9$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No68c337.81$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5914743.5%64 W · 83 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a5c…f68ebacked Yes30c335.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a8…62c9backed Yes30c334.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+165.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c330.69$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c327.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c308.56$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe30e…eadabacked Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004334.9%15 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes7c302.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846651.5%34 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10218738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeae…e314backed Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes11c273.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8758927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No77c267.88$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f4…3406backed Yes15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea3…9b8bbacked Yes6c266.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf67…374ebacked Yes15c266$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.94040%16 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3b…3ce4backed Yes38c236.84$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7be…539fbacked No73c235.68$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.637072.9%51 W · 19 L+12.4wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+29.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes13c226.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd49…7fe8backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305334%18 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00b3…0991backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306929%20 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No69c199.98$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9920749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.