Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb49dc6ffde2710f8158974edd60ed38ee059ae2c2571c8f6f99962b212a9ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 30c | 10,596$3,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.77 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 68c | 10,000$6,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,189.46 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 26c | 9,926$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,544.96 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 1c | 7,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 72c | 4,599$3,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.06 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked No | 3c | 4,375$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 31c | 3,628$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 1c | 3,259$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -52%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked No | 21c | 3,166$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 74c | 2,996$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.92 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No | 30c | 2,593$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.07 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 29c | 2,399$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,330$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 6c | 2,200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 33c | 1,900$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 32c | 1,881$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.06 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 9c | 1,788$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.69 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb979…6e86backed Yes | 67c | 1,498$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 77c | 1,496$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.57 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…d36dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,351$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 19c | 1,274$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.21 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…2d0dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,222$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 24c | 1,178$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.9 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,171$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.82 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked No | 27c | 1,095$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 12c | 1,026$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 76c | 953.67$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.47 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 5c | 933$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 74c | 902.15$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 77c | 884.52$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.12 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…c046backed No | 26c | 842.8$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 19c | 817.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.94 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 761.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 2c | 752.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b76…76a2backed Yes | 72c | 739.63$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 67c | 730$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 729.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…b399backed Yes | 79c | 700$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 6c | 694.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed Yes | 67c | 680.7$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 36c | 673.24$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 75c | 665.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 73c | 656.56$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.9 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 618.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 2c | 611.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 32c | 602.25$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…4d95backed Yes | 70c | 511.98$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 6c | 481.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 77c | 469.08$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…43dcbacked Yes | 76c | 410.17$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…b93cbacked Yes | 69c | 405.8$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 19c | 403.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed Yes | 76c | 401.57$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 28c | 394.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…1542backed Yes | 68c | 384.52$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 4c | 360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…a8f2backed No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…aecfbacked Yes | 68c | 354.71$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 66c | 344.27$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 20c | 343.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 72c | 339.01$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 3c | 333.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…6873backed No | 39c | 317.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 316.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8561backed No | 33c | 307.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…bff2backed Yes | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…dbcabacked Yes | 77c | 264.07$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 39c | 256.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed No | 5c | 255.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 12c | 233.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 43c | 233.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 73c | 220.61$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 68c | 218.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…8a7cbacked Yes | 66c | 212.77$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 69c | 205.45$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…b3fdbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 67c | 197.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…1438backed No | 21c | 195.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e49…fc23backed Yes | 73c | 193.31$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…0d34backed Yes | 76c | 188.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 68c | 176.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…c307backed No | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a2…02a5backed Yes | 76c | 168.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…cfc9backed No | 18c | 167.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254e…863bbacked No | 24c | 167$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…9f30backed No | 32c | 157.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…4508backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 34c | 139.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd608…2e36backed Yes | 71c | 138.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 39c | 124.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…4096backed Yes | 67c | 119.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…3e7dbacked Yes | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…1d05backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.