TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf99a…bc0bbacked No61c36,676$22,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,303.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…eb53backed Yes39c36,676$14,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,303.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No69c13,871$9,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,266.034852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes36c10,934$3,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,881.656930.4%21 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes20c10,614$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.662020%4 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No68c10,061$6,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,263.252650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes23c7,643$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.8226238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf541…5505backed Yes0c5,583$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes38c5,556$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.922222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes15c5,080$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.741118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes21c4,782$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.2312927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes29c4,524$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.1423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes2c4,438$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.95175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c3,727$2,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.9826835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4dc8…89b6backed Yes45c3,603$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes23c3,084$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.474420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes27c3,028$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.4390%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No58c2,684$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed Yes39c2,537$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8664…dd88backed Yes46c2,409$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes20c2,298$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d4…886ebacked No79c2,210$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.11668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes2c2,131$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.982321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes30c2,054$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.569138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No73c2,009$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.9414750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes26c1,950$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.992751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c1,818$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1913910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No72c1,814$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.932931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes31c1,805$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.0710137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No60c1,700$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.998247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No66c1,527$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.1911040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No72c1,374$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.051662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes37c1,354$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.059326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes17c1,321$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.572334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d0…620cbacked Yes31c1,319$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c1,288$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.2625528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c1,230$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.664037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No73c1,218$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.8315855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No68c1,198$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.7910241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes15c1,169$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No67c1,165$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.051080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c1,158$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4230837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4e2…1546backed Yes36c1,119$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.492347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes38c1,105$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7380…5840backed Yes30c1,095$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No78c1,070$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed Yes47c1,061$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked No72c1,028$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf13…690abacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes24c999.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes14c981.82$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2611530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes30c981.43$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.431421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc835…8af5backed No71c968.27$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.544100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes11c935.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f8…30aabacked Yes16c919.93$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No68c917.7$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.122774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9110…4a41backed Yes22c908.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c878.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.285119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed No74c854.22$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.685356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9044…de51backed No79c752.95$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes40c741.83$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5712937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes14c739.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2413622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No64c732.07$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.951457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No69c718.99$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.532850%14 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No77c712.55$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.851154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No69c689.95$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.192268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No67c688.92$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.499475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7ab…fc03backed Yes2c672.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes43c651.74$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.78660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No68c600.2$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.6714920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes37c559.17$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.568045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x069f…b749backed Yes37c540.4$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1992744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb9…b39cbacked No59c539.95$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No61c533.48$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.8414456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf861…681fbacked No65c518.12$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.941850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No57c513.7$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No73c502.76$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.861540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-40.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e5f…9d60backed Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb084…92dcbacked Yes34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1804146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed No68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee1…bb2ebacked Yes2c479.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea36…f272backed Yes5c462.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed No61c452.92$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.061822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No62c452.6$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.1415217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked Yes45c449.92$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c446.4$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3541736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7927…6ffdbacked Yes5c436.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbabd…1106backed No66c431.73$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked No64c422$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.511250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed No74c416.63$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87f…fb1fbacked Yes31c412.9$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-81%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b87…e76dbacked No75c400.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.451546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No64c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.716336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed No58c399.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.992454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.