Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0cd92335daddae68c908b0224429ca72b221bdfd475ee64d1afc2f045c8540d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 27c | 783.21$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.88 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 705.71$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.46 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 424.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 70c | 385.46$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…506abacked No | 79c | 349$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 53c | 331$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 55c | 320.79$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 33c | 301.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…43dcbacked No | 49c | 206.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…211cbacked No | 49c | 203.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed No | 32c | 168.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked No | 15c | 153.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…ba05backed Yes | 43c | 139.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 47c | 101.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…56a2backed No | 48c | 101.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…4e5ebacked Yes | 56c | 96.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 77c | 87.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 84.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked No | 45c | 63.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 25c | 56.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148a…c772backed No | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…62e2backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…807cbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…44a4backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b2…ef50backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…1e30backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 72c | 37.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 59c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 58c | 32.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed No | 40c | 29.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…b84bbacked No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 57c | 28.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…14c7backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.