TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$504,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$432,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $504,727 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c29…d822backed Yes9c22,540$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.9710625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes21c16,011$3,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,383.441414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes19c15,106$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.354511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No66c12,236$8,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,123.5314456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c11,876$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.7126835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No79c9,331$7,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.4513230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94df…4455backed Yes13c8,972$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes6c8,932$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.691931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ca7…6149backed No78c8,193$6,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7802560%15 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes29c8,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.981136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c6,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes5c6,451$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.513920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes20c6,000$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.361266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c5,545$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes13c5,299$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.342334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes14c5,091$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.93215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes16c4,972$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.3410812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes12c4,633$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,512$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c4,464$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.5825528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes14c4,244$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2421426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes14c4,009$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.4314121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c09…dbfabacked Yes17c3,957$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes26c3,684$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.069037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3313…8355backed Yes9c3,274$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…70c0backed Yes32c3,036$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.03520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes30c3,000$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9111643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x859e…df37backed Yes9c2,981$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c2,902$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes12c2,900$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x393c…7a6dbacked Yes9c2,882$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb438…cb51backed Yes1c2,848$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes20c2,789$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.363411.8%4 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No70c2,600$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.011060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35b…fd83backed Yes1c2,583$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes17c2,528$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.294515.6%7 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ea…0140backed No52c2,490$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.921650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+84.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa955…7e84backed Yes1c2,454$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No51c2,352$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.991080%8 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes11c2,318$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.852441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+87.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No41c2,090$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.554946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes28c2,000$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed Yes5c1,913$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes15c1,807$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.683839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No67c1,775$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.697736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce17…0131backed No76c1,697$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No56c1,618$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.376930.4%21 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No48c1,596$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes38c1,584$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.06742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes53c1,572$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.832857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes13c1,525$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.54729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes8c1,499$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No60c1,443$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.512157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes13c1,432$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.161414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+284.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes9c1,411$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.77290%0 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c1,382$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.18704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No60c1,277$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.7124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c1,258$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.469115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d2d…46abbacked Yes16c1,243$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a5…6851backed Yes3c1,240$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No76c1,200$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.424348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes50c1,150$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-85.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes4c1,150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes1c1,142$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104445.5%20 W · 24 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-65.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No80c1,133$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.95352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes16c1,084$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.119932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes20c1,075$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.983020%6 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No56c1,042$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.71752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes31c1,026$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3183724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes13c1,020$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.611530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes16c1,013$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd698…dfc0backed Yes4c1,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes57c1,000$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc608…a4eebacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ae…7a7ebacked Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c17…6fcbbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1923…3b76backed Yes31c968.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No63c965.8$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.153743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes59c947.55$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5602520%5 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0d8…0a63backed Yes24c874.75$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7538…88e7backed Yes17c862.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.93100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes53c842.68$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…b534backed Yes16c813.04$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes16c805.25$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes7c763.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7410426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes13c743.61$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.483514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes18c728.41$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.521936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b6…f9d9backed No72c720$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No43c702$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.143161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ca…815abacked Yes17c690.48$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc92a…2818backed Yes7c689.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…d7ebbacked No76c666.61$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.991070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x269a…0837backed No45c664.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.281573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3379…c283backed Yes46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c648.85$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e91…42e5backed Yes10c645.8$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes10c644.55$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.58936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked Yes61c612.75$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.231353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.