TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Yemen before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd909…fd75backed No35c22,199$7,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,510.762050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes49c6,928$3,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,390.852138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No73c5,188$3,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.948220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No29c3,222$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,298.148037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes68c3,059$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.732133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes25c2,733$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.028749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…6fa3backed Yes68c2,628$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No43c2,578$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.777247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No62c2,053$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.111154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes19c2,028$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.839815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fd…829ebacked No32c1,931$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed Yes66c1,673$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No39c1,629$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.3710150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes75c1,573$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.716245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked No33c1,444$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.532040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes35c1,442$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.25121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes20c1,350$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes78c1,269$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.14812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…3f44backed Yes14c1,147$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed Yes70c1,120$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.014050%20 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No40c1,066$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.2640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes57c1,040$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.984639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No27c1,026$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.414724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No78c1,008$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.021866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes34c959.96$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed Yes26c833.07$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.231450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20eb…9694backed No61c820.9$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes64c810.45$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.92326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bab…5fa0backed Yes68c732.66$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+48.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1f8…0d34backed Yes51c683.31$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No28c603$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.228427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes34c599.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed No73c595.6$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c585.72$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No42c545.83$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.9177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes64c492.31$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3311350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes13c466.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.46663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaa7…5844backed No78c446.01$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x717e…6498backed Yes23c433$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.973716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes60c423$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.572755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…0213backed No25c420$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.91250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes74c400$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2964922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed No45c395.26$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.261931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes45c395.19$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.844318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes12c379.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.512832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a4c…54e7backed Yes66c378.79$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes29c346.01$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.184440.9%18 W · 26 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes56c345.92$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No52c338.76$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.622240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb21…a1b1backed No31c324.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No75c318.92$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9824234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88db…4228backed No25c301.54$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.541323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes59c276.18$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.274030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7a…7a7cbacked No80c264.5$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.91457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed Yes68c252.94$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes76c238.46$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.922326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes14c237.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8826423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No53c235$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.455743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No32c232.8$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.822951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd16…a2cdbacked No72c221.43$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+161.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes15c202.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed No39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1223729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f0…81bdbacked No77c196.49$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.171894.4%17 W · 1 L+6.7wins+0.37per pick57cpaid+84%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8b3f…cb91backed No49c190.56$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a6…56eebacked Yes70c188.34$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.53850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked No34c186.79$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd6…b1b2backed Yes54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes59c184.78$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.425518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No29c182.49$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.428515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes10c180.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.034641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb54b…9750backed Yes33c176.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1670%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No32c154.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.914520%9 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…c6a4backed Yes10c145$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2df…7f57backed No66c130.94$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.862030%6 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6248…51cfbacked Yes75c126.14$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes27c125.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-61.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes27c124.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.534429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes57c123.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c91…edd8backed Yes16c123.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No28c119.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.07887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick56cpaid+87.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes73c114$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.225143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fa…33dfbacked No49c111$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes33c105$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.235315.1%8 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No63c103.83$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8221259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fa2…0204backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b36…acebbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa699…785fbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90a3…4fbabacked Yes68c98.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9075…43dcbacked No76c85.77$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.771457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a4…f952backed No35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.71540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x607d…1c00backed Yes56c80.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes55c76.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.283324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf37b…da7abacked Yes67c74.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a4…1c0abacked No73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes72c66.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.23100%0 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.