TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fe7…4f20backed No51c6,177$3,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.8623435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813a…acb1backed Yes40c5,963$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.683016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes24c4,487$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.3824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd98a…dfc5backed Yes9c3,961$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fce…33f8backed Yes36c3,000$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0701822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No80c2,260$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.096540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c2,088$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes19c2,070$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.8225311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec2…cb66backed Yes50c2,007$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-72.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No46c1,796$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.864841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No54c1,786$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.113743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes8c1,586$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9912830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes5c1,448$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.756913%9 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No55c1,376$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.592347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes30c1,372$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.193522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes20c1,351$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.934040%16 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed No64c1,256$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.96887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+48.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes55c1,250$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6852123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a0…f233backed Yes10c1,243$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.22224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-86.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c1,198$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.46387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes8c1,158$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.624010%4 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No45c1,111$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.5235341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8545…ada5backed Yes50c1,099$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+85.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed No56c1,009$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.312326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes58c917.82$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No49c900$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.714358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9076…8805backed Yes51c817.99$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.381346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c780.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcb…e6f1backed Yes3c767.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x723a…d86dbacked Yes22c700$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick22cpaid+11%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c681.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.925327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70e0…0edcbacked Yes20c644.43$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.61742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes8c638.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.153815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No60c627.11$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.419932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c520.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ae…3808backed No58c518.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.551346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbac…b9bebacked No78c514.64$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+119.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No75c500$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed No53c500$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes25c492.61$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8111542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653a…bb03backed Yes6c491.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No45c477$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.357949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f9…4794backed Yes8c441.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.464723.4%11 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No50c418.31$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.3110241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b9…153cbacked Yes47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x429a…77fbbacked No79c388.04$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.494052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c348.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6117122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes30c317.61$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.591216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes13c300.47$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5811322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69cc…cf1fbacked Yes40c297.2$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes8c278.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.291910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes53c249.67$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.217638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes20c246.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1620026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No43c235$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No46c227.72$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.723458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No44c226.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.111020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No68c219.14$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.96159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…109fbacked Yes35c214.03$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.141216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ab…e62ebacked Yes19c211.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes56c209.56$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.352433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes13c206.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.744358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74ad…92abbacked Yes59c205.63$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.681844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37d4…0fe2backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No80c199.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404060%24 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c189.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7941736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x73e5…5bb5backed No57c176.84$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes20c176.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.952722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No80c154.71$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.595464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…43dcbacked No78c150.07$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes12c149.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.517843.6%34 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7988…cefebacked Yes43c146.44$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x212c…8e4abacked No65c146.37$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.371050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ff2…ba22backed No69c144.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No71c141.33$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.55479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c121.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7589…9081backed No48c117.71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524a…0441backed No44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c2…12b9backed Yes50c102.02$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.772123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf268…2ac5backed No80c101$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ead…ba24backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No50c93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.041145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes51c90.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.976622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93da…558fbacked No71c67.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.452272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ee…cf38backed Yes38c51.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a26…915dbacked No71c43.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.64728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe553…f023backed Yes39c40.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f78…f9dabacked No44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3e…c5b5backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6d…7dd1backed Yes57c38.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d96…3ad5backed No45c35.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.564100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+117.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9661…6489backed No73c32.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2348…9ee0backed No64c31.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No47c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.784261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.