TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,833,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,453,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,833,524 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 740 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c3e…3d75backed No3c1,406,563$37,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,310.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fcc…1c7fbacked No0c255,950$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56d…e019backed No0c142,000$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No0c115,533$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No0c109,405$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes79c109,118$86,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,658.733215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fd5…c313backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a79…888abacked No0c99,990$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No1c72,829$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.893745.9%17 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8308…ca4bbacked No0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes75c64,541$48,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,913.542965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes11c63,708$7,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,383.282321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff7…a4d4backed No0c52,915$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3869…2d67backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No3c49,800$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.0115125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e92…6bf6backed No0c48,603$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+27.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4be2…473dbacked No0c48,500$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes48c48,005$22,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,153.613953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf98…f72abacked No0c46,250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612b…b036backed No0c44,450$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No0c43,320$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.32128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-72.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No50c40,816$20,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,427.311526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed No0c39,222$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9390%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No0c38,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No0c35,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45651.5%1 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed No3c31,257$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.18190%0 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No1c30,657$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3614456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ab…47aebacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b8…13a2backed No0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes38c28,992$10,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,048.641376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.33per pick44cpaid+142.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No0c28,047$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.094156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79d1…28b3backed No0c28,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e0…dcdebacked No0c27,670$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No0c27,012$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.531553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a7…e655backed No0c25,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504818.8%9 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed No0c25,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c81…3b0cbacked No0c24,528$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked No0c23,050$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.05110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59c…ea1abacked No0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb975…ce42backed No0c22,915$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa192…79d6backed No5c22,617$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2260…9fcdbacked No0c21,555$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed No0c20,413$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a2…033fbacked No0c20,100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf11d…2806backed No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+82.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x711e…487bbacked No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0554…da2abacked No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…fc10backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c50…3e65backed No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed No0c19,483$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8536…a2cfbacked No0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No54c18,605$10,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,002.491723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked No1c17,396$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.861323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes74c17,279$12,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,408.543342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d8…9c51backed No0c16,945$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b9…74cebacked Yes24c15,530$3,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,785.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+107.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No3c15,270$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.272825%7 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes36c15,172$5,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,752.283438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No5c15,164$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed No0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaecb…d6cbbacked No0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f9…603dbacked No0c14,973$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed No24c14,533$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.491520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked No0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No65c13,931$9,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,007.954459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e5…38aabacked No0c13,188$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed Yes23c12,972$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,938.943426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No61c12,281$7,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,523.21850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes14c11,346$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,748.52712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49e8…4f0bbacked No0c11,050$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-72.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ef…899abacked No0c10,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes40c10,673$4,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,449.217525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc00f…fa8fbacked No0c10,462$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x761d…0687backed No0c10,250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes28c10,030$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,190.962638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0881…b590backed No0c10,006$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4974…ea15backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x486b…0f34backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7b…9cd5backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…0a31backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff0…ad1ebacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…e44abacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a2…a01abacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb065…d73dbacked No0c9,950$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked No16c9,885$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes15c9,582$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,188.44420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes27c9,515$2,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,982.0810137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x668d…08b5backed Yes38c9,430$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,890.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+37.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15c6…6ed6backed No65c9,065$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,849.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa43d…df8ebacked Yes39c9,053$3,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,495.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No1c9,013$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5311530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ca…00e3backed No76c8,445$6,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,439.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No3c8,301$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.128337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes30c8,072$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,643.793348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ee…e027backed No0c8,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.