Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d4b91777bc38af74d8694efb8c608a81b1331abafd92a5db473eb200cec9a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $739,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $844,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $739,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 57c | 73,281$41,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,975.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 54c | 39,961$21,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,710.05 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No | 75c | 33,583$25,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,321.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 38c | 32,186$12,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,835.62 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 46c | 28,147$12,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,317.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 42c | 25,730$10,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,001.96 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 60c | 20,000$11,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,987.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed No | 64c | 10,461$6,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,771.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…f039backed Yes | 25c | 10,058$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 61c | 8,852$5,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,422.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 61c | 8,371$5,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,306.24 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…79dbbacked Yes | 67c | 8,160$5,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,489.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 73c | 8,089$5,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.18 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fe…8fb0backed Yes | 38c | 7,500$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…435fbacked Yes | 41c | 7,258$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 38c | 7,240$2,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,524.11 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 41c | 7,037$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,147.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed No | 63c | 6,842$4,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 43c | 6,330$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,607.03 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 57c | 6,025$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.09 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…b5d5backed No | 43c | 5,700$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed No | 53c | 5,482$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 26c | 5,437$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.84 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 42c | 5,395$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,124.19 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…dcaebacked Yes | 41c | 5,314$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,281$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 54c | 5,229$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.73 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 38c | 5,206$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,227.91 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e9…a9b7backed No | 59c | 5,102$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 41c | 4,923$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.31 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 41c | 4,854$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.16 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 60c | 4,725$2,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 32c | 4,710$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 43c | 4,590$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 61c | 4,292$2,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…f26bbacked No | 75c | 4,002$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 73c | 4,000$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.53 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5614…4893backed No | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes | 55c | 3,999$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 73c | 3,953$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…64d1backed No | 59c | 3,900$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 54c | 3,847$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.05 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 29c | 3,812$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.61 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…157dbacked No | 75c | 3,726$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 59c | 3,721$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…126cbacked Yes | 57c | 3,600$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa475…09acbacked No | 59c | 3,570$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…9d23backed No | 62c | 3,500$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed Yes | 58c | 3,485$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 53c | 3,388$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa68a…39d7backed No | 75c | 3,372$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb979…6e86backed Yes | 31c | 3,005$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…2fa9backed Yes | 48c | 2,969$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…f671backed No | 75c | 2,960$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 48c | 2,836$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.18 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 58c | 2,753$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.38 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed No | 52c | 2,688$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,490$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…418ebacked Yes | 46c | 2,390$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…0775backed Yes | 22c | 2,272$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…2099backed Yes | 31c | 2,236$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 60c | 2,219$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 52c | 2,217$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f85…c3a2backed Yes | 57c | 2,100$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 37c | 2,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 40c | 1,983$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…31acbacked No | 52c | 1,983$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…ff92backed Yes | 54c | 1,824$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb274…0cadbacked No | 58c | 1,823$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.43 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 62c | 1,816$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.53 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 36c | 1,728$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.23 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 75c | 1,721$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 22c | 1,707$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…8d1abacked Yes | 57c | 1,707$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 1,702$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 37c | 1,650$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.11 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 42c | 1,559$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,550$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.03 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e49…fc23backed Yes | 57c | 1,524$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,518$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 64c | 1,516$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.65 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…40a1backed Yes | 62c | 1,494$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,457$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.58 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 67c | 1,427$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…2d21backed Yes | 46c | 1,423$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 74c | 1,420$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.87 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…a144backed Yes | 6c | 1,404$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 57c | 1,402$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.29 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 45c | 1,378$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.86 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 51c | 1,376$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.58 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,340$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 79c | 1,311$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 54c | 1,276$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.85 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,255$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.23 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…f8d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked No | 41c | 1,222$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 72c | 1,220$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…1e11backed Yes | 49c | 1,212$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.