Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4cc4dd21d9ebf402b8fdf4e31c5e50b51c0fd0222dec8152b124ba5d7c07d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $265,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 4c | 26,812$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.26 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…c592backed Yes | 20c | 22,395$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,479 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 14c | 17,600$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.33 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 13c | 14,287$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.88 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 11,530$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.77 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 29c | 8,206$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.1 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,942$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 73c | 7,384$5,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 77c | 7,150$5,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.05 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 22c | 7,032$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.21 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…fcb2backed No | 80c | 6,135$4,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 5,533$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.19 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…d9dabacked No | 80c | 5,492$4,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…37bdbacked No | 80c | 5,437$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…c72cbacked No | 80c | 5,331$4,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 75c | 4,589$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.85 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 14c | 4,300$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.01 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 80c | 3,815$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.98 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…40f7backed Yes | 2c | 2,894$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 77c | 2,331$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.11 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 70c | 2,131$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,036$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.45 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,015$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 2,007$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.04 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…d216backed Yes | 37c | 1,620$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f8…850ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,320$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 1,258$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.46 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 10c | 1,193$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 22c | 970$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…801cbacked Yes | 42c | 900$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 70c | 894.86$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd300…30adbacked Yes | 27c | 843.19$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 763.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad8…f70ebacked No | 79c | 760$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 719.96$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 713.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 15c | 663.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 5c | 635.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…bf6ebacked Yes | 3c | 624.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 69c | 583.33$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.23 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 21c | 570$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 37c | 550.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 70c | 510.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 21c | 499.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52f…8e38backed Yes | 20c | 497.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…fa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 439.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 29c | 421.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…d02abacked Yes | 29c | 415.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 24c | 408.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…5061backed No | 80c | 405$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 381.33$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 17c | 369.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…af17backed Yes | 14c | 314.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +4,891.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 301.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfa…5704backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102c…a24cbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 14c | 291.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…cc39backed Yes | 12c | 279.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed No | 72c | 279.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 23c | 258.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 20c | 245.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabc7…d019backed Yes | 21c | 239.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…b43fbacked Yes | 43c | 232.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 18c | 210$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Yes | 26c | 209.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked No | 78c | 206.88$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…a702backed Yes | 10c | 204.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcd…9293backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…edc7backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 199.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 8c | 194.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 69c | 180.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…24f9backed Yes | 34c | 174.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…3cffbacked Yes | 17c | 170.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…f1c8backed No | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…e968backed Yes | 26c | 151.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…8c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…b7bfbacked No | 77c | 144.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 37c | 136.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 74c | 126.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…8864backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 17c | 116.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 35c | 103.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…6734backed No | 71c | 103.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.