TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes4c26,812$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.263129%9 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e1…c592backed Yes20c22,395$4,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,47910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes14c17,600$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.3313230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes13c14,287$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.8823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c11,530$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.775722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes29c8,206$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.13354.5%18 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes4c7,942$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.671520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd116…be32backed No73c7,384$5,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.612060%12 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No77c7,150$5,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.053644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes22c7,032$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.2115125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4107…fcb2backed No80c6,135$4,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes12c5,533$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.1925311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…d9dabacked No80c5,492$4,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8275…37bdbacked No80c5,437$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x628d…c72cbacked No80c5,331$4,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No75c4,589$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.856450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes14c4,300$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.015133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No80c3,815$3,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.985563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcd…40f7backed Yes2c2,894$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No77c2,331$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.114734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8616…c877backed No70c2,131$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.451241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes16c2,036$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.459932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,015$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.015327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes29c2,007$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.04175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x139b…d216backed Yes37c1,620$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f8…850ebacked Yes30c1,320$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.97425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c1,258$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1f9…4794backed Yes10c1,193$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.224723.4%11 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed Yes11c1,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…f325backed Yes22c970$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a3…801cbacked Yes42c900$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No70c894.86$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.416030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd300…30adbacked Yes27c843.19$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-72.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes3c763.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad8…f70ebacked No79c760$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddae…5d62backed Yes23c719.96$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.753243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c713.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes15c663.17$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.862630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes5c635.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.04195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…bf6ebacked Yes3c624.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ae…e412backed No69c583.33$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.233268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes21c570$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.23762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes37c550.5$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.071040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No70c510.99$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4310343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x723a…d86dbacked Yes5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick22cpaid+11%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes21c499.97$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.998615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52f…8e38backed Yes20c497.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.192969%20 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b81…fa2fbacked Yes2c439.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes29c421.82$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12114456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x086c…d02abacked Yes29c415.38$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-75.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes24c408.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e3…5061backed No80c405$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes21c400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.46431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c381.33$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3125528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes17c369.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccd3…af17backed Yes14c314.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.02520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+4,891.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c301.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4812830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfa…5704backed Yes41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x102c…a24cbacked No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes14c291.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2510426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaad3…cc39backed Yes12c279.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f4a…9589backed No72c279.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.34887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes23c258.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed Yes20c245.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabc7…d019backed Yes21c239.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick26cpaid+191.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37fa…b43fbacked Yes43c232.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes18c210$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.82536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Yes26c209.57$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked No78c206.88$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.882634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e43…a702backed Yes10c204.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-46.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcd…9293backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14a…edc7backed Yes34c199.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes6c199.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9713128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2da1…97d1backed Yes8c194.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No69c180.62$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.313865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed No77c175$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a66…24f9backed Yes34c174.43$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…3cffbacked Yes17c170.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc6d…f1c8backed No80c156$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x034a…e968backed Yes26c151.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0881…8c3fbacked Yes34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ef…b7bfbacked No77c144.87$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes21c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.37462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes37c136.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No60c133.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.334158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No74c126.57$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6484…8864backed No76c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…59f7backed Yes17c116.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No80c110$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.25464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb186…310cbacked Yes35c103.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25fb…6734backed No71c103.79$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.852860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154124.4%10 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.