Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb538c58c7b72f0fa9d16bdb919ff541aee036c9bf72426fea383c451afa131e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $880,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $921,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $880,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 657 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 58c | 64,972$37,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,361.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 37c | 37,691$13,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,715.16 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…a20fbacked Yes | 79c | 28,970$22,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,965.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed No | 72c | 27,963$20,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,924.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 54c | 26,075$14,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,085.89 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 34c | 23,896$8,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,806 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 32c | 21,386$6,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,491.23 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 54c | 19,557$10,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,485.39 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…9f73backed No | 62c | 15,611$9,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,946.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…6f4bbacked No | 42c | 13,783$5,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,027.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 35c | 13,524$4,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,852.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…89ffbacked Yes | 34c | 13,351$4,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,539.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 12,809$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,109.51 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 23c | 12,554$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,628.98 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 80c | 12,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 30c | 10,655$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,462.66 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed No | 48c | 10,011$4,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,158.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 60c | 9,917$5,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,924.21 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2765backed No | 29c | 9,600$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,816 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked No | 50c | 8,766$4,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,393.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…930bbacked No | 66c | 6,723$4,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba6…e055backed No | 66c | 6,628$4,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,253.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 54c | 6,514$3,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,548.31 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked No | 39c | 6,317$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,864.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 61c | 6,247$3,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 51c | 6,024$3,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.81 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 41c | 5,859$2,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 20c | 5,359$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,308.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +87%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 40c | 5,243$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.56 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 38c | 5,040$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,148.34 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 61c | 4,915$2,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 64c | 4,874$3,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 31c | 4,870$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…0123backed Yes | 28c | 4,856$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 20c | 4,823$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 40c | 4,793$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.69 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 37c | 4,599$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 54c | 4,592$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.38 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 34c | 4,590$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…68e9backed Yes | 20c | 4,446$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No | 41c | 4,403$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 27c | 4,322$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.63 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…2fa9backed Yes | 50c | 4,315$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 80c | 4,000$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 39c | 3,947$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 3,823$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.39 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 26c | 3,753$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.82 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 71c | 3,736$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.07 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,623$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked No | 35c | 3,602$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…6c08backed Yes | 71c | 3,600$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 64c | 3,400$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.98 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49a…36ccbacked Yes | 60c | 3,256$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…6108backed Yes | 71c | 3,100$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 71c | 3,029$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.25 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…8e76backed Yes | 17c | 3,024$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 65c | 3,000$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.43 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 2,937$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.45 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…4068backed Yes | 71c | 2,900$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f3…6704backed No | 74c | 2,848$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 2,772$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.95 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 22c | 2,731$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.81 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 66c | 2,716$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 28c | 2,715$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.32 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No | 80c | 2,637$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 17c | 2,611$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.69 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 28c | 2,610$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 37c | 2,558$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.76 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 35c | 2,537$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.38 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 37c | 2,500$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 71c | 2,450$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…0a05backed No | 68c | 2,360$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 22c | 2,258$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 45c | 2,232$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.13 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No | 72c | 2,220$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 2,122$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.89 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed No | 64c | 2,066$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 26c | 2,028$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.93 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 73c | 2,021$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,980$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.17 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804e…594bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,917$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 1,881$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.3 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 44c | 1,841$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 43c | 1,812$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.88 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 27c | 1,810$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,808$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 59c | 1,800$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 19c | 1,720$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8135…a544backed No | 40c | 1,636$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…06fcbacked Yes | 60c | 1,594$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked Yes | 61c | 1,583$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked No | 62c | 1,560$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…032abacked Yes | 67c | 1,554$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 27c | 1,501$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.39 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 67c | 1,500$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…8afdbacked Yes | 58c | 1,473$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.