TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b54…6f4bbacked No49c7,782$3,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No50c7,044$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.54977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3961backed No16c5,956$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.064736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes52c5,444$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.0724258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes54c5,300$2,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,427.8335341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed Yes65c3,286$2,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.164057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes46c3,010$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.598549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1977…14cebacked No1c2,778$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No13c2,747$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.865038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes50c2,500$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.238224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No49c2,500$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.956647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x431a…6984backed No1c2,128$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0407356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed No45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9003727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…c2ddbacked No41c2,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8101060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No15c1,732$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.81717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No13c1,642$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.22175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No1c1,422$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.733461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No21c1,385$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.546030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.844117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No50c1,220$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.210241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b87…fa7bbacked No1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes53c973$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick41cpaid+172.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No50c962.29$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.272552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes49c905.18$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.0512547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes53c902$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes51c892.16$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.1611839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes51c886$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8966…5d80backed No48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3841827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No47c717$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No43c690$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.87656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a04…2310backed No47c683$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes66c679.99$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No28c624.17$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8615125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes49c567.72$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.3830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes53c552$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No49c550$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes60c539.47$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.22839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7d…e203backed Yes48c531.17$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.04887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+85.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No47c508$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…e122backed No50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked Yes50c480.52$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.524153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c84…2c7ebacked No35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes47c378.21$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.454252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes53c362$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked No47c362$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes47c350$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1865561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes49c343.74$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.711978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+48.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4628…ee62backed Yes51c335$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d09…42b7backed No49c335$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No34c327.58$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes51c317.4$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.534841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No36c300$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.86051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed No47c290$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed Yes53c288$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No47c283$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes51c276.19$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.193351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No50c264.6$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No47c255$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes53c255$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No49c247$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…a432backed No34c223$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No51c200.23$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xdde3…e797backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e39…4eaabacked Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed No46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed No47c185$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No49c180.69$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.777243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a58…4508backed Yes57c176.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7211645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66bd…6bbabacked Yes48c126.51$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+49.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb52…92eebacked No45c119.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No48c104.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14be…4498backed Yes48c104.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5512830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9619…a6c2backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613452.9%18 W · 16 L+6.4wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4222…8aa7backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…b7bfbacked No49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed No48c99.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.861833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa74…8addbacked No52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb484…b19bbacked Yes52c96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No47c92.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.785743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca08…1267backed Yes52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.24330.2%13 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No52c89.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9911225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0462…da6dbacked Yes52c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4e…9e0bbacked Yes55c78.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.341030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf1e…0a48backed No49c78.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.94757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75c…0387backed No35c76.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.922142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f4…f6c7backed Yes55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+71.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes50c65.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7315451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.86640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8d…6e40backed Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+301.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2196…b03cbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0167…e439backed No50c48.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.942263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes75c45.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.553438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed No47c44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.