Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a429e6999f56ed4a01d8d0d5afe5e65b6dc68c888e80e7b441fefe413cb596e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,024,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,126,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,024,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 675 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 42c | 53,089$22,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,238.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 58c | 40,914$23,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,199.42 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 36c | 35,278$12,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,721.37 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Yes | 47c | 25,848$12,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,220.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 50c | 21,388$10,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,768.11 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 46c | 15,868$7,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,271.84 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes | 46c | 14,911$6,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,905.66 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 70c | 14,625$10,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,393.55 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 34c | 12,855$4,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,464.73 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 11,892$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.3 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 73c | 11,532$8,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,097.81 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 9,694$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.45 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…3f61backed Yes | 44c | 9,500$4,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,154.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 15c | 9,195$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.44 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…1787backed Yes | 4c | 8,916$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 23c | 8,107$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.96 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 16c | 8,006$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,686.52 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 28c | 7,396$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,326.5 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb0…ece3backed No | 78c | 7,362$5,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 20c | 6,954$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.34 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 48c | 6,379$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.91 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 6c | 6,352$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.07 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 27c | 5,723$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.9 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 17c | 5,718$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.86 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 78c | 5,669$4,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 72c | 5,269$3,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,816.89 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 62c | 5,229$3,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.64 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…ab10backed No | 67c | 5,049$3,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…79dbbacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…8f97backed Yes | 73c | 4,995$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 53c | 4,844$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.15 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 38c | 4,812$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 48c | 4,650$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.72 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…9d77backed No | 68c | 4,367$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…755fbacked No | 75c | 4,356$3,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf941…da87backed Yes | 44c | 4,318$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes | 22c | 4,307$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…34cfbacked No | 79c | 4,221$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 64c | 4,178$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.62 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 42c | 4,142$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 47c | 4,052$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 3,969$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.28 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 67c | 3,921$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…b5dbbacked Yes | 61c | 3,836$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,758$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.32 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…0341backed No | 68c | 3,693$2,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes | 54c | 3,608$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 29c | 3,588$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.96 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 17c | 3,564$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.52 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed No | 65c | 3,530$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.31 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked No | 64c | 3,502$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 28c | 3,398$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.16 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d14…f8bdbacked No | 62c | 3,360$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed No | 31c | 3,346$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 28c | 3,310$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.16 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 27c | 3,211$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 39c | 3,123$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cb…82e5backed No | 64c | 3,121$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,101$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 38c | 3,063$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 29c | 3,054$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.33 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2d43backed Yes | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 29c | 2,992$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.51 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,891$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…c7b4backed Yes | 15c | 2,716$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…188ebacked No | 72c | 2,700$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 44c | 2,609$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.19 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…a2a0backed Yes | 28c | 2,602$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd300…30adbacked Yes | 56c | 2,571$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…d382backed Yes | 9c | 2,557$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…7cfbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,528$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 65c | 2,510$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.54 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…68f8backed No | 79c | 2,500$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 57c | 2,471$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.63 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 56c | 2,411$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 61c | 2,408$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.81 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 68c | 2,400$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.76 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042b…bbf1backed Yes | 39c | 2,394$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 2,382$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 56c | 2,313$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.4 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,300$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Yes | 43c | 2,281$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,270$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,265$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,200$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 75c | 2,186$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.94 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,168$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 64c | 2,164$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.81 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 50c | 2,149$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.94 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 47c | 2,126$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.32 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 10c | 2,095$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.59 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd772…ceb5backed No | 26c | 2,070$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 43c | 2,041$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.72 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 58c | 2,036$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 20c | 1,960$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,955$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…6016backed Yes | 8c | 1,919$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 8c | 1,890$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 26c | 1,866$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.9 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.