Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bc029d16f62f8e351b123eec8cb54002b9e4b630f632c910b974dd05bdee4e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $698,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $699,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $698,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 46c | 59,614$27,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,121.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 30c | 36,516$10,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,773.56 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 70c | 26,145$18,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,807.64 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 66c | 20,033$13,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,827.48 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 19,487$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 76c | 17,143$13,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,049.41 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 52c | 13,136$6,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,836.28 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…6f4bbacked No | 78c | 12,863$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 34c | 12,534$4,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,294.93 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 48c | 11,305$5,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,381.84 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…bbd2backed No | 1c | 11,072$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 36c | 10,721$3,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,901.01 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed No | 72c | 10,518$7,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,557.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 64c | 9,877$6,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,284 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…7aadbacked No | 54c | 9,000$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…6984backed No | 1c | 8,839$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 37c | 8,643$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.55 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…34debacked No | 1c | 8,152$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 45c | 7,692$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,228.16 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 51c | 6,391$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 44c | 6,138$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 47c | 6,119$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.65 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 0c | 6,074$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…fd20backed Yes | 47c | 5,750$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,062.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…e2c2backed No | 54c | 5,722$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…8550backed No | 2c | 5,687$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 56c | 5,598$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 33c | 5,450$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 20c | 5,391$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.31 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 5,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 56c | 5,045$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,807.56 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 53c | 4,798$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.74 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 12c | 4,790$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.01 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 68c | 4,739$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.83 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…6d01backed No | 2c | 4,607$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 74c | 4,489$3,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 53c | 4,435$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 57c | 3,923$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.9 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…1582backed No | 16c | 3,821$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…48ffbacked No | 2c | 3,764$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 54c | 3,721$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.07 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1922…646abacked No | 28c | 3,673$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 30c | 3,573$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e4…6845backed No | 1c | 3,443$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 75c | 3,425$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 1c | 3,412$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked No | 38c | 3,370$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…5744backed No | 2c | 3,364$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 9c | 3,332$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90cd…0564backed Yes | 47c | 3,278$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…e1d8backed No | 49c | 3,237$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed Yes | 54c | 3,220$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 80c | 3,141$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.73 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc54…93c9backed No | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9add…e4b4backed Yes | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 47c | 3,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 2,923$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…6fcbbacked No | 1c | 2,912$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…d932backed No | 50c | 2,784$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 32c | 2,739$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.54 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 2,620$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.79 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 39c | 2,581$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…548bbacked Yes | 48c | 2,539$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.99 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 64c | 2,500$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.19 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 45c | 2,325$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.56 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 49c | 2,303$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c4…78bcbacked No | 63c | 2,243$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,191$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 49c | 2,170$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.29 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 52c | 2,147$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.1 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked No | 57c | 2,100$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked No | 64c | 2,000$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 44c | 1,963$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 51c | 1,915$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…6873backed No | 32c | 1,902$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…02bdbacked No | 55c | 1,796$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 32c | 1,794$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.12 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 33c | 1,782$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 72c | 1,750$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.99 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes | 49c | 1,740$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed No | 52c | 1,700$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 40c | 1,678$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.34 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,633$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.62 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed Yes | 57c | 1,621$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.99 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…7e18backed Yes | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes | 46c | 1,575$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…4b47backed No | 1c | 1,554$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 54c | 1,527$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8094…d020backed No | 1c | 1,524$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…31acbacked No | 72c | 1,518$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…09f7backed No | 1c | 1,476$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 53c | 1,400$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 58c | 1,397$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.16 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 47c | 1,380$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.7 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…82f8backed Yes | 45c | 1,360$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…439bbacked No | 74c | 1,359$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 1c | 1,337$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.