TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$698,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$699,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $698,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes46c59,614$27,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,121.682250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3961backed No30c36,516$10,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,773.564736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes70c26,145$18,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,807.643228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes66c20,033$13,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,827.4814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c19,487$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes76c17,143$13,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.4111647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No52c13,136$6,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,836.286357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b54…6f4bbacked No78c12,863$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes34c12,534$4,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,294.9324258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No48c11,305$5,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,381.8412547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe219…bbd2backed No1c11,072$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes36c10,721$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,901.018549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5c…5226backed No72c10,518$7,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,557.61944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No64c9,877$6,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,284977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc65b…7aadbacked No54c9,000$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,86010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x431a…6984backed No1c8,839$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No37c8,643$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.556647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7701…34debacked No1c8,152$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes45c7,692$3,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,228.168224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No51c6,391$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.532737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed No44c6,138$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.781855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes47c6,119$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.65175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No0c6,074$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3878…fd20backed Yes47c5,750$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2e…e2c2backed No54c5,722$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef8c…8550backed No2c5,687$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No56c5,598$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.641163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed14…bebcbacked No33c5,450$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.481464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No20c5,391$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.316030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c5,100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No56c5,045$2,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,807.5614121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No79c5,000$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.99366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No53c4,798$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.742759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x429a…77fbbacked No12c4,790$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.014052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes68c4,739$3,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.832222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-66.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb2d8…6d01backed No2c4,607$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No74c4,489$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3201154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…c2ddbacked No53c4,435$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.351060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No57c3,923$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.915125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e6…1582backed No16c3,821$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4101…48ffbacked No2c3,764$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No54c3,721$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.077656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1922…646abacked No28c3,673$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcc…d87cbacked No30c3,573$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.591338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e4…6845backed No1c3,443$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes75c3,425$2,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.014535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c3,412$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eac…db7abacked No38c3,370$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3d…5744backed No2c3,364$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No9c3,332$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90cd…0564backed Yes47c3,278$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc4…e1d8backed No49c3,237$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.841963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9631…89a1backed Yes54c3,220$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.46683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes80c3,141$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.733560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc54…93c9backed No54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9add…e4b4backed Yes46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed Yes47c3,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.992850%14 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c2,923$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…6fcbbacked No1c2,912$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5314…d932backed No50c2,784$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes32c2,739$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.547462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No15c2,620$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.795038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4940…52efbacked Yes39c2,581$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9e…548bbacked Yes48c2,539$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.9923435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No64c2,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.193461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No45c2,325$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.5610241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No49c2,303$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.092552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46c4…78bcbacked No63c2,243$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes45c2,191$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.2235341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed No49c2,170$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.293727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No52c2,147$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.17243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked No57c2,100$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c84…2c7ebacked No64c2,000$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.871656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e93…353fbacked No44c1,963$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.141540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes51c1,915$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.931643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4d…6873backed No32c1,902$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc875…02bdbacked No55c1,796$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.31040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes32c1,794$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.127356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x4422…96f4backed No33c1,782$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed No72c1,750$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.997360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes49c1,740$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.441346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8966…5d80backed No52c1,700$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.991827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes40c1,678$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.347851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes45c1,633$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.629962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed Yes57c1,621$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.994057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebc9…7e18backed Yes49c1,600$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8162100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes46c1,575$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.091145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x303a…4b47backed No1c1,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e3…58edbacked No54c1,527$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.254252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8094…d020backed No1c1,524$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090f…31acbacked No72c1,518$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…09f7backed No1c1,476$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes53c1,400$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.992240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes58c1,397$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.168055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No47c1,380$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.74630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8656…82f8backed Yes45c1,360$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd0…439bbacked No74c1,359$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No1c1,337$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.632313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.