TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes17c3,828$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.3611940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5685…62e2backed No79c3,782$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.54666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes18c3,668$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.813925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes10c3,626$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.993514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes22c3,581$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.53130%0 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes20c2,800$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes22c2,579$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.715238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes19c2,304$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.1414819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No80c2,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41016943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes15c1,975$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.59810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes17c1,959$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.6814241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes16c1,446$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.44820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes18c1,344$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.293016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0780…0cb4backed Yes16c1,254$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes17c1,128$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.854042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes12c1,100$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No79c1,064$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.983161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699e…d892backed Yes20c1,006$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No79c999.99$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2108143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed Yes21c954.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes15c923.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.754119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed No80c855.32$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.322065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes19c750.18$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.264522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes7c662.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.91933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0da2…59e7backed Yes3c612.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes22c555$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b21…8658backed Yes3c510.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No79c500$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1044156.1%23 W · 18 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes7c482.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes20c450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x823d…e7e5backed Yes21c445.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.56728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes17c400$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes15c391.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78b3…f028backed Yes17c344.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes21c333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9313145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes19c317.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.283737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes4c316.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.493511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes23c305.86$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0120446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes18c300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb174…d896backed Yes24c287.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ea…f801backed Yes19c261.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.27728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes21c230$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.35742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d05…3407backed Yes50c202.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes22c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d6f…bdcfbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-74.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes20c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Yes20c192.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes18c185.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.933859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x004f…9612backed Yes22c184.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked No73c179.34$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.423246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+67.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ed…82e5backed Yes23c174.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes22c159.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.64630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9075…43dcbacked No78c154.96$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.091984.2%16 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+28.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x913b…2866backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes10c148$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes17c147.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c142.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes9c139.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2378…a059backed No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.332245.5%10 W · 12 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick70cpaid-36%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x80a3…d285backed Yes15c133$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9550%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed No55c131$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.145851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1afb…4f87backed No78c128$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d98…c9acbacked Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-77.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb17f…60eebacked Yes16c121.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.46425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes21c119.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7811918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes20c101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.270%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes22c101$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.222814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1814742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a85…37c8backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+79.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b0…5f19backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c46…dd2abacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes21c94.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes20c93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4217021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes28c91.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0128636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+84.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed No73c76.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.734231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6090…19cabacked No80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-69.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No78c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.256349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40f5…2636backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No66c70.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aca…dae1backed Yes34c70.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce8…b14bbacked No78c63.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes19c63.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1236527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2712643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6193…d924backed No80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.32437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x837e…27dfbacked Yes19c57.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9229…5db5backed Yes23c55.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No80c50.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3525241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9925…baa3backed Yes20c50.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.